Us Politics · resolved market

Will Hillary Clinton be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16ab1e5a955a88008c3b1a7af686a12a29bf97a536f20fcd054ed54c78369e6c

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $13,672
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $10,216

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,672 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	10c	1,250$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.57	47	6.4%3 W · 44 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	13cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	4c	951.91$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.46	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacdb…d0edbacked Yes	9c	900.73$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.75	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	692.3$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.7	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	9c	670.31$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.05	696	34.9%243 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf910…7467backed Yes	4c	500$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87fd…66bcbacked Yes	27c	463$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.01	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-18%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	11c	426.91$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.09	145	28.3%41 W · 104 L	+11.0wins	+0.08per pick	21cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba6f…8cc1backed No	73c	391.78$286 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.78	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	57cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b23…0d60backed Yes	27c	349$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.23	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ef…f5cebacked No	73c	306$223 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.62	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	53cpaid	-6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	134	3.7%5 W · 129 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed No	77c	235.39$181 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.97	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8196…ab69backed Yes	20c	223.78$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.81	55	32.7%18 W · 37 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	10c	184.16$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.65	963	19.8%191 W · 772 L	-32.4wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed No	51c	176.82$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.75	31	64.5%20 W · 11 L	+2.8wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	25c	136.71$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.01	336	18.5%62 W · 274 L	-46.5wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-60%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0xcaa0…adf9backed Yes	19c	127.74$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1db2…ebc2backed No	73c	105$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.35	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+37%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23b8…c81fbacked Yes	21c	91.9$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.3	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-53.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	17c	62.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.55	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-2.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b26…cf9abacked Yes	49c	57.97$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.41	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	35c	53$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.57	1,073	35.5%381 W · 692 L	-70.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2455…a70fbacked Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed Yes	35c	48$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.86	49	16.3%8 W · 41 L	-9.8wins	-0.20per pick	36cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e9dcbacked Yes	46c	43.06$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Yes	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed No	66c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.8	37	35.1%13 W · 24 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-47%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeac2…7bebbacked No	58c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	64cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x010f…7730backed No	61c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	6	100%6 W · 0 L	+2.1wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+53.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Hillary Clinton be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event