Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5caa30d8c13e8a064d7720523cddb8ee6b11a63a169ab743e7427e1262bf5cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 1,933$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 1c | 1,109$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…ac22backed No | 75c | 1,041$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.25 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed No | 74c | 867$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.42 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…9357backed No | 74c | 867$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6307…0447backed Yes | 26c | 854$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…99aebacked Yes | 26c | 844$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +156.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes | 26c | 807$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.82 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…bdcfbacked Yes | 34c | 705.68$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes | 15c | 684$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed Yes | 13c | 684$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed Yes | 17c | 630$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x591c…390dbacked Yes | 25c | 611$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…c22abacked No | 74c | 602$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 17c | 500.53$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb993…6e3abacked No | 75c | 484$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed Yes | 25c | 482$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 15c | 463$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.45 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes | 14c | 446$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa098…81e4backed Yes | 26c | 412$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed No | 75c | 369$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.25 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0591…31e2backed Yes | 30c | 354.27$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed Yes | 13c | 340$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…69d8backed Yes | 30c | 333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3af5…05c1backed Yes | 31c | 327.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…afb5backed No | 75c | 320$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed Yes | 12c | 316$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 71c | 315.43$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.92 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb73e…975ebacked Yes | 17c | 296$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 15c | 281.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0625…f100backed Yes | 36c | 278$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ca…ff89backed Yes | 21c | 276$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7c…5a5fbacked Yes | 15c | 271$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58d6…8d67backed No | 77c | 260.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…d6f1backed No | 75c | 242$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x566d…c460backed Yes | 18c | 217.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48eb…4addbacked Yes | 29c | 209.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 5c | 208.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d74…e6b2backed Yes | 23c | 205.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +462.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 12c | 200.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 28c | 199.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…2372backed Yes | 26c | 199$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…b2f4backed Yes | 13c | 188$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9dd…55c4backed Yes | 33c | 183.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edc…42debacked Yes | 26c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 70c | 138.06$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 122.27$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked Yes | 25c | 119$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 17c | 116.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed Yes | 26c | 116$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…bd84backed No | 74c | 112$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed Yes | 15c | 104$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…a901backed Yes | 25c | 103.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceaa…bb9abacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ad…1952backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…0821backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 65c | 97.34$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 72c | 95.84$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…dab5backed Yes | 23c | 91.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 31c | 91.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 75c | 86.09$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 75c | 75.86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c19…c63cbacked No | 65c | 75.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf86…b19dbacked Yes | 27c | 71.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc1…5216backed Yes | 25c | 67.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffb8…b577backed Yes | 30c | 65.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86cf…a6cdbacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…babfbacked Yes | 29c | 53.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e94…f7bfbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e27…acccbacked Yes | 26c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…0e60backed Yes | 36c | 38.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe15a…9854backed Yes | 30c | 36.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fb…092fbacked No | 79c | 34.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcebb…c86abacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf620…a623backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc01a…54ddbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb32f…939fbacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cb…c9c1backed No | 77c | 26.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…4322backed No | 78c | 25.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x846a…dbb0backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…ff41backed No | 74c | 20.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6e…c795backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53e6…b5f3backed No | 76c | 19.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…ac34backed No | 68c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +152.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…98e9backed No | 79c | 15.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5711…3fd1backed No | 78c | 14.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…aafabacked No | 79c | 14.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe365…b5b9backed No | 74c | 13.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.