Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x435839151a0fe58d6850e03176b22702b7e032629d637dc059cc0f2892a91aca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 239 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked No | 43c | 2,836$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.56 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 25c | 1,969$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.28 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e6…2f0fbacked Yes | 79c | 1,889$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed Yes | 61c | 1,723$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked No | 33c | 1,480$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…1616backed Yes | 67c | 1,368$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.44 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 40c | 1,281$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.63 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 19c | 1,183$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.73 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 34c | 1,142$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.37 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed No | 12c | 1,106$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.44 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…0176backed Yes | 66c | 1,050$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6537…fcecbacked No | 34c | 911$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…db64backed Yes | 63c | 831$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed No | 33c | 822$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.26 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Yes | 61c | 818.84$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 30c | 765.85$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.25 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e6…45f8backed No | 31c | 760.01$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 27c | 728.76$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.84 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…3213backed Yes | 67c | 728$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf614…c345backed No | 38c | 707$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 42c | 704.17$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c06…d8b9backed Yes | 63c | 703.85$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked Yes | 67c | 683$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked Yes | 66c | 649$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.66 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked Yes | 68c | 648$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 36c | 641.41$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.67 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2f…2dedbacked Yes | 61c | 604.21$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.69 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd172…956abacked Yes | 59c | 596.38$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked Yes | 70c | 563$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 42c | 558.69$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.71 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…ae40backed No | 34c | 546$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.64 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…a2debacked Yes | 67c | 513$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdece…08dbbacked No | 30c | 502.61$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b0…6440backed Yes | 73c | 499.99$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…a634backed No | 33c | 496$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 5c | 475.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed No | 40c | 459.99$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.8 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed No | 33c | 458$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…3d00backed Yes | 74c | 449.24$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.04 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked No | 33c | 447$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.51 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 18c | 428.12$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…ce36backed Yes | 58c | 427$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.88 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 56cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 3c | 417.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes | 67c | 411$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.63 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…34efbacked Yes | 57c | 408.61$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.63 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb14a…8814backed Yes | 74c | 406.79$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10c0…a15ebacked Yes | 58c | 403.97$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.97 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 31c | 400.98$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…e61bbacked No | 32c | 386$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.52 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 72c | 363.23$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.57 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05b…8df1backed No | 32c | 361$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked No | 35c | 343$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.19 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 24c | 331.86$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…fadcbacked Yes | 70c | 330.41$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07e1…9010backed Yes | 56c | 323.44$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.45 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…fbcabacked No | 30c | 321$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9f…476bbacked Yes | 70c | 317.84$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x210e…d213backed No | 16c | 301.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed No | 42c | 299.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 33c | 281$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.73 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20fb…e5fabacked No | 40c | 275.82$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.68 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…0d4cbacked Yes | 70c | 273$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3edc…42debacked No | 36c | 270.48$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ee…505ebacked Yes | 67c | 258.79$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…f183backed Yes | 67c | 254$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 41c | 249.93$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.47 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed Yes | 58c | 247$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.78 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…d6f1backed Yes | 62c | 243$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 42c | 242.55$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.64 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 75c | 240.78$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.04 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…4df2backed No | 42c | 239.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked No | 34c | 236.93$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.01 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed No | 33c | 236$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.88 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked No | 32c | 231.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xceaa…bb9abacked No | 30c | 227.88$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa819…4310backed Yes | 52c | 214.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 65c | 211.54$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.04 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ef…d6e0backed Yes | 51c | 209.55$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7021…411dbacked Yes | 63c | 203.17$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 41c | 202.49$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.45 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed No | 49c | 200.03$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.92 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x203e…b7e1backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed No | 37c | 195$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37af…db00backed Yes | 50c | 195$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…ab39backed Yes | 63c | 190.65$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 56c | 186.55$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b24…adbebacked Yes | 64c | 181.14$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0285…59d6backed Yes | 67c | 179$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked No | 45c | 172.84$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.49 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…2d13backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…0e1cbacked Yes | 60c | 167.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.17 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 61c | 162.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0591…31e2backed Yes | 69c | 161.85$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed No | 33c | 161$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5b…48bbbacked Yes | 62c | 160.28$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…3c00backed Yes | 58c | 159.9$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.37 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f2…bbebbacked Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b7…e1bdbacked Yes | 56c | 152.32$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…d945backed Yes | 69c | 145.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e19…72cfbacked No | 43c | 142.37$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?this page
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.