Middle East · resolved market
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb599e417a45ccc07516cbbf83a958971724fb31d411206a8ff756179b51c120
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $162,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 14c | 8,056$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.74 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01b2…0dcfbacked Yes | 2c | 8,040$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 7,057$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.84 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…a8c0backed Yes | 14c | 6,912$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 6,367$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.81 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8276…48e4backed Yes | 9c | 4,899$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 4c | 2,976$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.82 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf816…0433backed Yes | 8c | 2,629$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…8380backed Yes | 8c | 2,548$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,790$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ce…3c8ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,731$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.03 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,618$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc03…cd5cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,254$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…fbe0backed Yes | 13c | 1,248$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 1,197$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.73 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 1,167$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.53 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 7c | 1,088$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…ac90backed Yes | 6c | 1,043$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked Yes | 16c | 953$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.48 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes | 3c | 931.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes | 16c | 928$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 8c | 903.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked Yes | 16c | 864$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.24 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…d8efbacked Yes | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…66fbbacked Yes | 6c | 763.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d1…8c37backed Yes | 7c | 754.58$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…f639backed Yes | 10c | 712.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked Yes | 13c | 674$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.62 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 6c | 673.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…2372backed Yes | 13c | 664$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…a127backed Yes | 13c | 632$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7714…0720backed Yes | 5c | 622.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 6c | 616.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 16c | 606$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 599.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4a…bd70backed Yes | 7c | 595.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63df…000cbacked Yes | 2c | 476.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 7c | 475.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 7c | 432.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2674…c66bbacked Yes | 3c | 399.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed Yes | 6c | 388.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca3…32dfbacked Yes | 10c | 381.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.26per pick | 35cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 4c | 312.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653b…c68ebacked Yes | 40c | 300.14$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 8c | 290.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 63c | 267.71$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.39 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…2b64backed Yes | 7c | 263.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes | 5c | 260$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…d3d6backed Yes | 9c | 216.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed Yes | 13c | 212$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 13c | 211.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…7630backed Yes | 7c | 189.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 8c | 187.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…2befbacked Yes | 8c | 143.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 126.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 11c | 122.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f30…fd82backed Yes | 17c | 122.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed No | 55c | 121.13$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…941ebacked Yes | 12c | 114.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 61c | 104.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe45c…a222backed Yes | 12c | 84.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 58c | 81.39$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed Yes | 14c | 73.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 60c | 50.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026?this page
- Israeli forces enter Beirut by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.