Middle East · resolved market
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fdb3370cb6d9d983320d5e07506656de0e5572d69422a41d8c5a3b7a62bbde7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $251,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $259,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $251,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 287 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 5c | 14,863$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.21 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 2c | 10,198$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.85 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked No | 5c | 6,294$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.54 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes | 48c | 5,882$2,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,039.8 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 1c | 4,676$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.77 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x363b…dd08backed No | 1c | 4,156$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 1cpaid | +2,934.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 57c | 4,083$2,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,738.76 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 5c | 4,000$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…3591backed No | 4c | 3,600$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.48 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…7f10backed No | 6c | 2,279$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.94 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 58c | 2,270$1,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.94 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 4c | 2,058$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.98 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d12…ab54backed No | 11c | 2,004$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.88 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed02…85f7backed No | 5c | 1,968$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ba…b3f9backed Yes | 42c | 1,933$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.91 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 17c | 1,923$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.93 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…89a0backed No | 5c | 1,749$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ff…2df5backed No | 6c | 1,679$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed No | 56c | 1,658$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.3 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 2c | 1,600$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 8c | 1,586$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.53 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,560$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked No | 5c | 1,472$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed No | 66c | 1,458$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 1,402$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.73 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked Yes | 60c | 1,365$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…b550backed Yes | 33c | 1,135$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked No | 5c | 1,111$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 33c | 1,095$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.65 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f5…8e1ebacked Yes | 32c | 1,094$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 5c | 1,084$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 4c | 1,050$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes | 65c | 1,022$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.7 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed Yes | 33c | 1,021$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.07 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes | 33c | 981$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.27 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…7c6abacked No | 10c | 937.18$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 31c | 917$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.73 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 72c | 899.99$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.17 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed No | 74c | 888$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.12 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…7c27backed No | 7c | 871.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 33c | 826.52$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.1 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a41…1160backed Yes | 31c | 805$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ceb…7fc8backed No | 47c | 805$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 5c | 800$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…8d0dbacked No | 71c | 799.88$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed No | 4c | 793.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed No | 44c | 782$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.36 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes | 23c | 772$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b5…b7acbacked No | 5c | 768.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…6cb4backed Yes | 33c | 766$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.22 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed No | 74c | 762$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.88 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x310b…98a7backed No | 7c | 754.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0c…20bfbacked Yes | 73c | 743.24$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.13 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…4146backed No | 67c | 734$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.74 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed Yes | 31c | 729$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.01 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked Yes | 45c | 726$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.3 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…5514backed No | 55c | 719$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed No | 67c | 699$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed Yes | 49c | 690$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.9 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7897…4239backed Yes | 68c | 689.23$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73c4…f3cdbacked No | 7c | 680.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa56a…2d0cbacked No | 5c | 673.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 35c | 670.9$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.71 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes | 36c | 669$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed Yes | 32c | 668$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.24 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked Yes | 26c | 667$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.58 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +4.4wins | +0.44per pick | 37cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed No | 64c | 661$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.04 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…031ebacked No | 7c | 657.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…6569backed No | 68c | 646$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.28 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e8…6f21backed No | 68c | 643$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed Yes | 34c | 641$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.06 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x541a…1740backed No | 40c | 641$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 3c | 613.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf100…2fcabacked No | 75c | 610$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…3408backed No | 78c | 600$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1100…815ebacked No | 40c | 597$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 71c | 593.63$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.92 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad04…dce5backed Yes | 44c | 593$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked No | 3c | 591.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 31c | 585$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.65 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8433…6e0fbacked No | 72c | 581$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…c213backed No | 69c | 561$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.09 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267a…d267backed No | 68c | 555.35$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 6c | 555$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ee…9238backed No | 74c | 552$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9370…9e88backed No | 58c | 549.71$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.8 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 50c | 549.48$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.74 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked No | 67c | 549$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c7…be6fbacked Yes | 49c | 543$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed No | 67c | 541$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.47 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed No | 69c | 533$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.77 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 26c | 526$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.24 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…9ca7backed Yes | 26c | 509$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 3c | 498.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…1307backed No | 74c | 498$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.52 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed No | 69c | 490$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.1 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed Yes | 31c | 490$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.1 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…8211backed No | 68c | 488$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.84 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?this page
- Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.