TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$116,555
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$115,332

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,555 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 230 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd357…cd28backed Yes6c2,157$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2084…2175backed No73c2,137$1,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-54.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a1d…014abacked Yes50c2,110$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd001…3ceabacked Yes18c1,792$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.791050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbbe…f1d5backed No67c1,697$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.71758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf46…c363backed Yes30c1,677$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3859…7359backed Yes15c1,597$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.551250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb045…9c46backed Yes13c1,500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dce…4682backed Yes23c1,426$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.333625%9 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…6beabacked Yes12c1,409$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.081540%6 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked Yes29c1,407$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.0510144.6%45 W · 56 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x465c…6e53backed Yes31c1,399$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.691020%2 W · 8 L-3.4wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-66.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8c42…1616backed Yes12c1,391$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.92771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed Yes35c1,367$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.452540%10 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6789…52f9backed Yes27c1,358$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.661625%4 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad46…0918backed Yes31c1,336$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.161225%3 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f61…c03ebacked Yes12c1,310$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.2850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+74.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cd4…ee2dbacked Yes14c1,287$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.921216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-70.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed Yes16c1,133$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.281546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+32.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7a8…7efabacked Yes33c1,081$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.731181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.7wins+0.34per pick48cpaid+88.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3acc…973dbacked No69c1,072$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.321258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick35cpaid+78.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes24c1,053$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.28486.3%3 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-76.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8fce…2566backed No55c1,037$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.851838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-33.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aca…cad6backed No77c1,029$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.182142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9e5…d252backed Yes31c1,022$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.821163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.25per pick38cpaid+71.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xabeb…7a78backed Yes30c993$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.92035%7 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick45cpaid0%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b37…b02abacked Yes21c965.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ae…8598backed Yes34c925$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.52441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe362…bd00backed Yes30c908.93$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.791540%6 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-26.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf666…8842backed No69c891$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.211346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x755e…7b04backed No65c883$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.05825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-64.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x76f8…5145backed No66c863$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.711650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3506…4815backed Yes16c861$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.761050%5 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+37%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16a0…72f1backed No73c850$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.52263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+40.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1dd8…757abacked Yes27c846$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.421637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa71c…d0a8backed No73c831$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.371241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-33.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No59c807.96$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.855046%23 W · 27 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab31…5cc4backed Yes44c798.81$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaa1…eb3abacked No71c767$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.721145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88c4…758bbacked Yes27c764$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.281758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc536…589ebacked No63c741$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.17633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-51.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf101…b28abacked No70c719.62$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.62250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2950…ffeabacked No71c714$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.062657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+33.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4faa…fecfbacked No66c697$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.981154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No47c656.63$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.9214250%71 W · 71 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+70.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c51…a829backed No69c629$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.992245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa15b…200fbacked Yes31c619$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.891250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+44.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1639…e706backed No73c613$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.51560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x82a7…afb5backed Yes30c584$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.21464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+50.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes29c579$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.621625%4 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-52.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd07…0058backed Yes13c577$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.011936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x367b…48dabacked No67c566$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.782839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefc0…4942backed Yes33c566$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.782035%7 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x33e2…e1babacked No77c559$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.571338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6587…4f63backed No63c558$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.461963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd091…e046backed Yes17c548$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc9a…cc24backed Yes13c543$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.591546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x523d…cc1dbacked No74c519$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.94771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+21.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6891…1146backed Yes34c519$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.461233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5383…88f0backed No66c515$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.11850%9 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fbf…7328backed Yes33c510$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.31735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7233…f0eabacked Yes34c501$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.341553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed No65c484$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.42334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22ec…4477backed Yes23c479$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.17944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec0…76f4backed Yes15c467$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.051154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+42.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04f3…52cebacked Yes44c456.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-62.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf92a…9134backed Yes30c453$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.952245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b32…c8a9backed Yes34c450$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1531650%8 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x767e…e133backed Yes27c444.44$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes29c443$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.472934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61ef…b300backed No63c440$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.81844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+78.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde45…8238backed Yes15c433$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.95850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed No75c431.24$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.882147.6%10 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e35…384fbacked No65c422$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.71833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b63…52cfbacked Yes35c422$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.7837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ad8…9756backed Yes33c418$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.941127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-51.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x34fc…d14dbacked No65c405$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.751464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fd1…2bb3backed Yes35c405$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.75728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59f3…a7fabacked Yes34c395$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.3922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5372…5f61backed Yes16c394$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.04742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+101.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed No73c385$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.952556%14 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes16c384$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.441827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-51.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc362…7f4fbacked Yes33c383$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.391154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bb8…eea6backed No67c383$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.391553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+47%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x95e8…6f21backed Yes16c376$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.16911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.7wins-0.41per pick52cpaid-74.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0149…38d0backed Yes24c374.24$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-59.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5c8…e61bbacked No69c374$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.941346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+46.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70ff…b65fbacked No33c371.93$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.362123.8%5 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+164.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes28c361.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.131,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5322…95e1backed Yes28c360$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+52.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5885…6562backed No70c351$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.31553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+45.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a9…fee3backed No69c349$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.192330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.5wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-50.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x646f…23c3backed Yes34c345$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.31637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes27c343$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.611723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-57.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xff91…ab3abacked No74c335.85$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.423941%16 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+24%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xa488…f562backed No65c333$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.551154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid+6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa05b…8df1backed No66c330$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.21258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+47.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed No67c328$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.243336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes9c324.47$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6357426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a37…141abacked Yes33c323$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.592343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.