NFL · resolved market
Will "Mahomes" be said at the Super Bowl?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f0e89a528df6d184a6fd6b4890c6ce70c94a39ab3ddc9958312fcd4f0964a01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb840…2089backed Yes | 79c | 1,200$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed No | 25c | 1,070$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +307.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…75b7backed Yes | 55c | 1,058$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…1f84backed Yes | 70c | 948$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Yes | 76c | 945.21$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.51 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…2372backed Yes | 70c | 854$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fb…eceabacked No | 21c | 847.81$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.77 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +174.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…4d4cbacked No | 45c | 791$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked No | 33c | 619$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 23c | 566.1$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.56 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed No | 30c | 554$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…b27abacked Yes | 42c | 511.6$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.12 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8727…83d7backed No | 37c | 495$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…c213backed Yes | 63c | 495$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed No | 46c | 493$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 54c | 493$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506a…1b43backed No | 39c | 413$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.93 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…0005backed No | 30c | 394$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +170.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes | 61c | 362$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d8…4c30backed Yes | 55c | 349$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked No | 45c | 349$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked No | 39c | 333$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 39cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 61c | 333$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.13 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed No | 47c | 286$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed Yes | 53c | 286$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked No | 45c | 267$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed Yes | 70c | 229.99$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f5…8e1ebacked No | 29c | 214$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes | 71c | 214$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -69%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 73c | 211.68$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.53 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…f7eabacked No | 30c | 206$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed No | 17c | 195.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.07 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…40d7backed No | 29c | 188$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked Yes | 71c | 188$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +117.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed No | 42c | 185$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…ebc2backed No | 39c | 184$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 60c | 158$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.94 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed No | 24c | 154.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.85 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 59c | 140$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…1796backed Yes | 58c | 135$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…2e51backed No | 22c | 134.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.82 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb834…ffd5backed No | 23c | 132.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213c…92eebacked Yes | 76c | 131.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682e…70bdbacked No | 27c | 127.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 31c | 107.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1727…680ebacked No | 20c | 101$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +367.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18af…f909backed No | 16c | 100.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 18c | 96.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.24 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5b…a891backed No | 26c | 95.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +45%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked No | 30c | 93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 79c | 80$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 71c | 77.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa1…d4c8backed No | 21c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed No | 57c | 62.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 30c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 32cpaid | +130.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 80c | 29.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…36e0backed Yes | 70c | 16.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf751…3041backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Mahomes" be said at the Super Bowl?this page
- Will "Ann Michael Maye" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Apple" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Assault" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Bakemas" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Blowout" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Comeback" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Concussion" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Crypto" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Emerald City Route Artist" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Flushed out" or "Flush out" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "ICE" or "Border Patrol" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Jump ball" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Knee injury" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Legendary" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Now here's a guy" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Olympics" or "Olympic" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Polymarket" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "President" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Spanish" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Style" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Touchback" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Trump" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Unbelievable" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Underdog" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.