TailMyPicks
Market

NFL · resolved market

Will "Underdog" be said at the Super Bowl?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,016
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,016

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,016 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x533d…e5ecbacked Yes67c738$494 inLost-$494.46616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-67.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb9f…ee38backed Yes66c493$325 inLost-$325.38450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ee…9238backed No34c493$168 inWon+$325.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+48.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa1…eb3abacked No34c491$167 inWon+$324.062100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+109.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecb6…cfe8backed Yes66c491$324 inLost-$324.06333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0de5…d01cbacked No33c401$132 inWon+$268.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.38per pick28cpaid+108.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c42…1616backed No33c337$111 inWon+$225.792100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+132.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9859…0176backed Yes67c287$192 inLost-$192.29333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+156.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14d4…cc6fbacked No33c287$95 inWon+$192.29771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x00b9…4ca6backed No14c216.96$31 inWon+$186.382931%9 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.