NFL · resolved market
Will "Knee injury" be said at the Super Bowl?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30c26c93ec8b6ed699c5c736486cdcd2f026fb770c5d57757e5c1821e1e2bb70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x14d4…cc6fbacked Yes | 31c | 1,204$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 56c | 772$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f2…6a72backed No | 69c | 703$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…8234backed Yes | 56c | 657$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked No | 44c | 587$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed Yes | 57c | 527$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked No | 43c | 514$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…c22abacked No | 44c | 492$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked Yes | 56c | 492$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b7…d913backed No | 69c | 477$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e0…a63bbacked Yes | 31c | 477$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 30cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed No | 44c | 466$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed Yes | 56c | 466$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed No | 44c | 456$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91af…95c8backed No | 69c | 455$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…81f6backed Yes | 31c | 437$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed No | 69c | 350$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3722…1f0abacked Yes | 65c | 239.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked No | 44c | 201$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed No | 38c | 167.66$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.9 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…74b0backed No | 44c | 126$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Yes | 61c | 120$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 71c | 118.95$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.61 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…7916backed No | 37c | 118.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.94 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 21c | 112.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9d…527bbacked No | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…6c22backed No | 69c | 87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed Yes | 69c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…3e62backed No | 44c | 59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed No | 69c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02dc…a212backed No | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 32cpaid | +130.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5313…651dbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 55c | 18.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4f…d32bbacked Yes | 68c | 15.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Knee injury" be said at the Super Bowl?this page
- Will "Ann Michael Maye" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Apple" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Assault" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Bakemas" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Blowout" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Comeback" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Concussion" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Crypto" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Emerald City Route Artist" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Flushed out" or "Flush out" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "ICE" or "Border Patrol" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Jump ball" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Legendary" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Mahomes" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Now here's a guy" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Olympics" or "Olympic" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Polymarket" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "President" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Spanish" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Style" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Touchback" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Trump" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Unbelievable" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Underdog" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.