NFL · resolved market
Will "Polymarket" be said at the Super Bowl?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d2e9708c1c36644ab4c0763862ec4ddeef3ba5960d09ce06b9415d472e2c5f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1184…1b67backed Yes | 11c | 855$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755e…7b04backed Yes | 11c | 796$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…d0a4backed Yes | 30c | 647.8$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.03 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 25c | 507.15$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.37 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81d8…dc2bbacked No | 73c | 395.57$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed No | 78c | 360$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.98 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Yes | 34c | 295.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe08e…1d61backed Yes | 36c | 275.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 67c | 250$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 24c | 232.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 64c | 226.07$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.03 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0700…0652backed Yes | 24c | 208.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…65e5backed Yes | 24c | 206.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…2fbfbacked No | 75c | 198.35$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…d6cebacked Yes | 24c | 177.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 68c | 170.37$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b9…4ca6backed No | 74c | 159.45$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 79c | 150.32$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f45…97cebacked Yes | 19c | 139$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0b…c3dfbacked No | 80c | 125.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 73c | 122.33$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…f073backed Yes | 13c | 116.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…d2f5backed No | 78c | 104.6$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeeb…dd00backed Yes | 39c | 102.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…7d86backed No | 70c | 99.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e4…22cbbacked Yes | 29c | 93.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 91.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec70…e529backed No | 69c | 88.24$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 21c | 82.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2d…ced4backed Yes | 37c | 80.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -8.2wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked Yes | 34c | 73.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed No | 71c | 70.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 64c | 66.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d71…69d0backed Yes | 17c | 63.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7a…b49fbacked Yes | 24c | 63.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7e…030dbacked Yes | 43c | 60.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ec…7146backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2f…7e70backed Yes | 34c | 58.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 69c | 58.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed No | 79c | 55.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…eeeebacked Yes | 49c | 51.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…adcabacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 77c | 45.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…7ba9backed Yes | 33c | 43.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…015dbacked No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…da55backed No | 68c | 35.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9b…aff7backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…2ea6backed No | 65c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…24e0backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f55…580cbacked No | 75c | 26.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…3045backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a2…b3cdbacked No | 70c | 25.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…2970backed No | 79c | 25.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…7a8fbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf8…2488backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -70%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2b…573cbacked No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda82…eedabacked No | 74c | 20.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…84b4backed No | 74c | 20.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e42…fc2dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…5a01backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3140…a377backed No | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2709…3640backed No | 70c | 17.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 74c | 14.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Polymarket" be said at the Super Bowl?this page
- Will "Ann Michael Maye" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Apple" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Assault" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Bakemas" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Blowout" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Comeback" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Concussion" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Crypto" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Emerald City Route Artist" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Flushed out" or "Flush out" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "ICE" or "Border Patrol" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Jump ball" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Knee injury" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Legendary" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Mahomes" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Now here's a guy" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Olympics" or "Olympic" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "President" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Spanish" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Style" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Touchback" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Trump" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Unbelievable" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Underdog" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.