NFL · resolved market
Will "Trump" be said at the Super Bowl?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24ba5e3c6416d15f76eb81cbaef9c7a8c46a3a2679d05ec09e125d612c46e428
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x163a…70a2backed Yes | 52c | 1,269$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6307…0447backed Yes | 12c | 1,078$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 12c | 941$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e77…3273backed Yes | 53c | 889$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed0…0532backed No | 47c | 860$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…0005backed No | 48c | 806$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +170.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d04…131dbacked Yes | 52c | 553$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fb…eceabacked No | 69c | 505.17$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +174.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd12…da1abacked No | 70c | 490.31$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…e748backed Yes | 12c | 463$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked Yes | 53c | 452$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…0d52backed No | 47c | 452$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes | 54c | 446$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 46c | 446$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.84 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…02c0backed Yes | 53c | 438$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3d…aa1abacked No | 47c | 438$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed No | 48c | 405$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 62c | 393.02$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.51 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…0d4cbacked Yes | 12c | 345$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…46cebacked No | 48c | 341$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 69c | 299.12$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c08…7307backed No | 62c | 221.43$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +180.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed Yes | 29c | 204.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…076bbacked Yes | 49c | 179.78$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…ded2backed No | 48c | 148$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed No | 48c | 122$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed Yes | 25c | 115$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 64c | 107.54$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +9.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 284 | 33.1%94 W · 190 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…e100backed Yes | 41c | 98.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 30c | 98.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87dd…e210backed No | 56c | 89.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…184cbacked Yes | 57c | 79.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55f6…d7bcbacked No | 69c | 70.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 46c | 69.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…adcabacked Yes | 35c | 54.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 53c | 50.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…a349backed Yes | 41c | 48.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 26c | 45.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa1…d4c8backed No | 63c | 41.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9556…f729backed Yes | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…768cbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x455f…cfc1backed Yes | 51c | 38.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…1c52backed Yes | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…a879backed No | 50c | 30.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…4146backed No | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5313…651dbacked No | 58c | 26.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fff…f292backed Yes | 50c | 21.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed Yes | 54c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0504…9d2fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…e515backed Yes | 68c | 15.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Trump" be said at the Super Bowl?this page
- Will "Ann Michael Maye" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Apple" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Assault" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Bakemas" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Blowout" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Comeback" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Concussion" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Crypto" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Emerald City Route Artist" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Flushed out" or "Flush out" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "ICE" or "Border Patrol" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Jump ball" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Knee injury" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Legendary" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Mahomes" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Now here's a guy" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Olympics" or "Olympic" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Polymarket" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "President" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Spanish" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Style" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Touchback" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Unbelievable" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Underdog" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.