TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will "President" be said at the Super Bowl?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$183,740
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$204,893

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,740 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3542…c3c8backed No23c59,955$13,874 inLost-$13,874.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+43.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed No10c27,384$2,740 inLost-$2,739.71742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed Yes20c5,627$1,125 inWon+$4,501.87450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+62.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd31…8004backed Yes2c2,550$53 inWon+$2,496.751100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.98per pick2cpaid+4,684%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeba4…69fbbacked Yes6c2,100$127 inWon+$1,972.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+726.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x438e…e08ebacked Yes1c1,889$19 inWon+$1,869.9580%4 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.58per pick22cpaid+2,098.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdacf…3c74backed Yes15c1,648$245 inWon+$1,403.48875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+90.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x789a…1ddabacked No3c873.12$28 inLost-$28.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c6…7ff9backed Yes11c654.32$74 inWon+$580.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+342.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4a8…12eabacked Yes69c646.54$445 inWon+$201.612100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaee…bd71backed Yes41c266$109 inWon+$156.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x528f…7572backed No59c266$157 inLost-$156.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes74c120$89 inWon+$31.3534247.4%162 W · 180 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes77c52.04$40 inWon+$12.04933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No23c47.36$11 inLost-$10.877939.2%31 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed No26c43.33$11 inLost-$11.231258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+39.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No32c35.87$11 inLost-$11.38771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.39per pick32cpaid+130.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa33a…223fbacked Yes75c33.33$25 inWon+$8.331428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-58.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a8b…d6c0backed Yes65c26.28$17 inWon+$9.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7e…030dbacked Yes78c23.71$18 inWon+$5.21540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.