AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17085c63d7ebc0aa711eefd82cc30f76b2eae199e0604e74745d6ece9f33e1cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,435 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58fe…a8c5backed Yes | 58c | 1,716$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.14 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.37per pick | 44cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed No | 25c | 1,432$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.63 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed Yes | 46c | 1,403$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…0176backed No | 13c | 1,355$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…827bbacked No | 25c | 1,290$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked No | 19c | 1,130$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed Yes | 75c | 1,063$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.75 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x416c…8dcebacked No | 71c | 995$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…9357backed Yes | 29c | 989$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…0c87backed Yes | 76c | 935$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed Yes | 75c | 911.82$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.95 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…b418backed Yes | 75c | 898$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed Yes | 29c | 887$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.77 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes | 74c | 829$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…d837backed No | 26c | 822$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50eb…c59fbacked Yes | 76c | 786$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0895…4ddebacked No | 71c | 757$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…9184backed No | 71c | 724$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed No | 19c | 724$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.56 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -5.8wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…6e2ebacked No | 19c | 720$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcabd…3764backed No | 25c | 713$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…e7d3backed Yes | 75c | 692$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed No | 14c | 661$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed Yes | 75c | 630$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed Yes | 74c | 597$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead6…911fbacked No | 71c | 577$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +197.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed No | 24c | 575$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked No | 19c | 557$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.83 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -62%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…6698backed No | 24c | 542$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +127.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…1f50backed Yes | 76c | 542$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…8842backed No | 26c | 534$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.84 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed No | 71c | 531$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.01 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked No | 25c | 522$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…3ea7backed No | 15c | 513$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…13b4backed No | 22c | 487$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4628…ee62backed No | 15c | 486$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac7…dc0bbacked No | 13c | 482$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.33per pick | 40cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93c0…b919backed No | 13c | 473$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d2…39f0backed No | 25c | 470$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed No | 54c | 465$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.1 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c7afbacked Yes | 46c | 465$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…4456backed No | 24c | 465$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…e392backed No | 25c | 457$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 75c | 457$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.25 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7c…a11bbacked Yes | 75c | 457$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed No | 26c | 435$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.1 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…e6cebacked Yes | 75c | 434$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 38cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…1c04backed Yes | 75c | 427$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…c213backed No | 25c | 427$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.75 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…bd84backed No | 13c | 424$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked No | 25c | 422$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…a675backed Yes | 75c | 422$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…f0b5backed No | 71c | 420$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.2 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.34per pick | 42cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed Yes | 29c | 409$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bc…43e9backed Yes | 76c | 408$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd70e…0ac1backed No | 24c | 408$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed No | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed Yes | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed Yes | 75c | 394$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked No | 25c | 394$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…fc01backed Yes | 76c | 390$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed No | 24c | 390$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked Yes | 29c | 377$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.67 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed No | 15c | 376$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed No | 13c | 371$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…2372backed No | 13c | 365$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +73%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked No | 24c | 360$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374b…9a1fbacked No | 23c | 354$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked No | 18c | 345$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e77…3273backed No | 24c | 321$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed No | 13c | 319$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 4c | 316.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed Yes | 75c | 305$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +5.2wins | +0.35per pick | 52cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed No | 22c | 301$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 78c | 301$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…eadcbacked No | 22c | 295$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…4ab2backed Yes | 77c | 293.78$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked No | 26c | 286$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.36 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked No | 13c | 278$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed No | 25c | 278$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac89…ba4cbacked No | 13c | 262$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…e065backed Yes | 75c | 242$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked No | 25c | 229$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 221$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…3055backed Yes | 76c | 220.51$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked No | 19c | 220$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…c22abacked Yes | 58c | 216$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…f02dbacked No | 42c | 216$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.72 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 26c | 199.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked No | 14c | 193$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked No | 25c | 185$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed No | 25c | 170$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 71c | 169$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes | 49c | 164$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.94 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x636c…ea28backed No | 71c | 163$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked No | 15c | 161$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a04…2310backed No | 71c | 159$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 80c | 156$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +5.6wins | +0.28per pick | 42cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed No | 20c | 156$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI GPT score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?this page
- Will OpenAI GPT score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes won
- Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.