AI · resolved market

Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3bb9eb2c758cd71f7a59199c27bf3f20c9e1d929687c72b20c8d06076c45c78

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: AIevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $28,866
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $28,306

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,866 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in AI
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe309…44c2backed No	49c	2,070$1,014 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,055.7	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99ab…edc1backed Yes	35c	1,696$594 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$593.6	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.9wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed No	60c	1,523$916 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$606.98	64	39.1%25 W · 39 L	+4.4wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x50b9…4467backed Yes	33c	1,104$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362.95	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.15per pick	35cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca87…3701backed No	79c	1,072$847 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$225.12	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes	51c	1,017$519 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$518.67	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed No	43c	925.35$402 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$523.19	136	54.4%74 W · 62 L	+8.2wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…12c5backed No	67c	899.99$607 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$292.5	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	36cpaid	-75.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37b2…ab29backed Yes	33c	898.35$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes	50c	885$441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440.85	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef37…f2bcbacked No	65c	857$557 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$299.95	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+3.9wins	+0.18per pick	41cpaid	+81.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa347…2a40backed No	65c	839$545 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$293.65	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-5.8wins	-0.23per pick	43cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x60f4…d6debacked Yes	21c	716$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.36	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+85.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9279…9ca7backed No	39c	698$272 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$425.78	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae18…1132backed Yes	61c	678$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$413.58	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-3.5wins	-0.20per pick	38cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc66b…02aabacked Yes	13c	658.12$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.56	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-3.3wins	-0.27per pick	36cpaid	-87.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdec3…40acbacked Yes	62c	548$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.16	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x169a…55e4backed No	49c	522$256 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$266.22	19	73.7%14 W · 5 L	+5.0wins	+0.26per pick	47cpaid	+84.2%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x8737…2bffbacked Yes	51c	511$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.61	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5829…e46bbacked Yes	51c	509$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.59	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb593…28eabacked No	49c	498$244 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$253.98	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x039f…6bdcbacked Yes	62c	450.28$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.95	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.62per pick	62cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f73…acefbacked Yes	62c	411.18$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.12	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-3.4wins	-0.19per pick	30cpaid	-71.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked No	36c	409.35$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$261.42	190	40.5%77 W · 113 L	+14.4wins	+0.08per pick	33cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes	22c	408$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.76	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59d7…0217backed Yes	21c	321$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.41	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-4.3wins	-0.30per pick	45cpaid	-81.1%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	12c	302.55$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.71	415	7.2%30 W · 385 L	-26.1wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-69%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes	46c	300$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	+3.3wins	+0.06per pick	18cpaid	+8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9752…8087backed No	69c	235.54$161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.18	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-27%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d04…131dbacked No	78c	224$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.28	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x92e5…efeebacked Yes	12c	222$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.64	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3de…5339backed Yes	51c	203$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.53	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-2.6wins	-0.14per pick	45cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf100…2fcabacked No	78c	184$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.48	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.6wins	+0.20per pick	55cpaid	+79%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x973f…72ccbacked No	65c	158.91$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.37	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd329…a401backed Yes	63c	149.74$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No	29c	130.67$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.78	53	41.5%22 W · 31 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No	69c	126.01$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.45	94	44.7%42 W · 52 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	36c	122$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.94	729	35.5%259 W · 470 L	-57.8wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2731…6e32backed No	35c	121$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.65	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2d…1c72backed Yes	17c	118.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	+55.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x911b…a7febacked Yes	44c	113.64$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cb…0357backed No	76c	113.05$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.47	37	62.2%23 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes	43c	105.84$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.76	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	-16%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf05…8b29backed No	41c	100$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	+92.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Yes	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c47…37e8backed Yes	13c	91.19$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.85	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked No	56c	85.31$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.53	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-2.0wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked Yes	57c	83.86$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.54	70	38.6%27 W · 43 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x31ab…86cfbacked No	79c	77.54$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.66	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb48…be6dbacked No	63c	76.91$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.46	61	41%25 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0615…836fbacked No	66c	75.87$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.87	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.19per pick	59cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9521…9e2bbacked No	61c	62.1$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.45	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-47%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d09…1507backed Yes	65c	61.54$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75f7…7bd9backed Yes	50c	61$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.45	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.9wins	-0.27per pick	42cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No	38c	60$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.2	71	43.7%31 W · 40 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c8f…1cb8backed Yes	63c	58.97$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.03	43	23.3%10 W · 33 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	21cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	18c	57.95$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.54	1,363	6.8%93 W · 1,270 L	-20.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae91…0f69backed No	73c	56.71$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.12	80	76.3%61 W · 19 L	+12.0wins	+0.15per pick	61cpaid	+48.1%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed No	57c	56.16$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.03	44	25%11 W · 33 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No	69c	55$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.28	142	81%115 W · 27 L	+10.4wins	+0.07per pick	74cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No	38c	53.45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.14	294	30.6%90 W · 204 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29b7…be60backed Yes	62c	53.25$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3237…5658backed No	62c	50$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf031…2d12backed Yes	38c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-46.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	35	51.4%18 W · 17 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No	30c	50$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	70	35.7%25 W · 45 L	+5.5wins	+0.08per pick	28cpaid	+71.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf39e…9f90backed Yes	31c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed No	49c	49$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.99	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	37c	48.84$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.97	893	17.1%153 W · 740 L	-144.9wins	-0.16per pick	33cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	32-0.16 edge/pick
0xad99…dbabbacked No	76c	47.37$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.37	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-2.4wins	-0.15per pick	34cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No	37c	47.09$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.67	137	38%52 W · 85 L	-6.8wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-25%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c86…923fbacked Yes	64c	46.54$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	54cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd62…5705backed Yes	43c	46.23$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd281…a3c9backed No	76c	43.75$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	43cpaid	+66.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	28c	40.08$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.37	297	7.7%23 W · 274 L	-9.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes	44c	40$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	288	26.7%77 W · 211 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64f9…cf15backed Yes	54c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.4	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-38%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3fb…c25cbacked No	46c	36.79$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.77	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.48per pick	52cpaid	+94.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x936a…7a5abacked Yes	37c	35.18$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.02	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	39c	34.49$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.91	574	26.8%154 W · 420 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x147b…2646backed No	44c	33.98$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.03	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.56per pick	44cpaid	+127.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9657…b56abacked Yes	60c	31.49$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.89	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No	63c	31.49$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.5	220	19.5%43 W · 177 L	-11.7wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-46.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac51…bf0dbacked Yes	68c	30$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.68per pick	68cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c11…847bbacked No	53c	28.14$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.14	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x823e…3336backed No	71c	28$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.09	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.29per pick	71cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c8e…aacbbacked No	74c	27.03$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.03	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03d9…e8c1backed Yes	61c	26.21$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.99	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No	61c	25.64$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	67	83.6%56 W · 11 L	+10.3wins	+0.15per pick	68cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0dd7…9708backed No	63c	23.97$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.87	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.37per pick	63cpaid	+58.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed Yes	55c	23.63$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	57	31.6%18 W · 39 L	-5.9wins	-0.10per pick	42cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbbb8…2a9cbacked Yes	60c	21.84$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.60per pick	60cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df6…b6afbacked No	49c	20.51$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.46	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+104.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad31…5217backed Yes	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b30…100fbacked No	56c	17.81$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.81	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

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Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?this page
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes won
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

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