TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Sinners win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$123,683

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,683 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x387e…56a5backed Yes6c6,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes16c4,224$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.187931.6%25 W · 54 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes16c3,443$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.4719440.2%78 W · 116 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes9c3,132$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.7848236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes15c2,962$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.9529926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76a9…22cdbacked Yes22c2,257$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes13c2,234$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.55612.5%7 W · 49 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-76%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes17c2,228$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.393815.8%6 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-70.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed Yes15c1,530$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.893923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-52%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1930…691cbacked Yes18c1,424$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2602740.7%11 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x270e…2930backed Yes20c1,266$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2504829.2%14 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes16c1,152$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.9423741.4%98 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bf7…12e5backed Yes12c1,126$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xce8e…41debacked Yes19c1,100$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba5b…8ea5backed Yes19c1,100$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2d1…8458backed Yes12c1,022$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x964c…44acbacked Yes13c977$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.013154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bf9…2fc2backed Yes12c962$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1677…0753backed Yes12c962$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x58ef…3413backed Yes12c956$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes13c937.08$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.4917821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x109d…9274backed Yes19c930$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8de…a500backed Yes19c930$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes12c791$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.2124634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd29f…26b4backed Yes13c719$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.47633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa02f…0726backed Yes12c680$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf1b8…84e3backed Yes14c667$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.381643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8fc…ae82backed Yes77c645.66$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87d6…9357backed Yes13c644$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.72922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ea5…fd88backed Yes16c641.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick19cpaid-32.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes15c641.11$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7736.8%5 W · 68 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-50.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe43b…faddbacked Yes19c640$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0672…5763backed Yes19c640$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb6…ad74backed Yes12c640$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x81fa…c4d6backed Yes18c596.1$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.41333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No9c589.76$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.042944.8%13 W · 16 L+8.2wins+0.28per pick17cpaid+145.2%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x895d…3778backed Yes16c560.44$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.355523.6%13 W · 42 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick13cpaid+138.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf58d…a617backed Yes15c546$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.92055%11 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d38…e898backed Yes15c545$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.752045%9 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes16c528.08$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3367232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72e1…24e6backed Yes19c522$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes13c518$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3413040%52 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes13c468$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.841323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-55%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa8d…fc01backed Yes14c465$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed Yes17c441.24$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.365529.1%16 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabeb…7a78backed Yes13c433$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.291040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x722f…f17fbacked Yes15c425$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.751533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked Yes11c407.23$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb698…5ae5backed Yes6c401$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.66633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-45.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf3f0…f05fbacked Yes12c394$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.28771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick40cpaid+101.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x90e2…7babbacked Yes15c377$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.551145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+44%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes18c344.9$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.39983.1%3 W · 95 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-89%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf67…374ebacked Yes6c329$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.411338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes8c321.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2515739.5%62 W · 95 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Yes16c305$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.025244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed No79c300$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.11637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9846…ca9ebacked No78c300$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-62.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdb25…2fe3backed Yes9c299.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes9c284.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.731549.7%15 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb51…f32cbacked Yes14c283.35$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.754425%11 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-29.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed Yes13c282$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.285135.3%18 W · 33 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7039…2d8abacked Yes15c278$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb18…2372backed Yes14c266$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.24955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+26%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf36c…6b40backed Yes19c256.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501625%4 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes16c251.44$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4213321.1%28 W · 105 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No77c230.78$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.1212938.8%50 W · 79 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd44…f151backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207839.7%31 W · 47 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes15c218$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.71136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec72…5f04backed Yes19c207.37$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207450%37 W · 37 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes12c197.14$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.291,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb3…0434backed Yes12c196.16$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-21.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd43e…f6f2backed Yes19c189.33$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.73714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3655…e7b8backed Yes12c188.03$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed Yes16c180.71$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.513026.7%8 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0237…b076backed Yes17c173.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes16c166.77$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.354930.6%15 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f6b…2a84backed Yes9c166.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15650%3 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+237.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes10c158.05$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8810632.1%34 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cbc…1d39backed Yes20c153.21$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3140%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57ab…434bbacked Yes12c152$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.241435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes12c151.51$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3848414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes9c150$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.651231.6%2 W · 121 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-69.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df4…7a52backed Yes14c147.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-63.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6435…021fbacked Yes12c142.54$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+67.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe73a…b8d3backed Yes16c135.8$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6f…f19dbacked Yes13c131.15$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.182751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Yes15c127$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.481838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0067…15f5backed Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-64.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes13c124.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.717619.7%15 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa8e…b419backed Yes16c122.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c59…9c2bbacked Yes17c120.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ed7…767ebacked Yes21c120.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid-11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ae…305dbacked Yes12c117.58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb82f…9b6fbacked Yes17c114.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eb7…a911backed Yes15c114$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…6822backed Yes17c111$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes13c110$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.411729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb28b…3d9bbacked Yes18c109.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-76.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf5a…718abacked Yes15c109$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.