TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will F1 win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$396,305

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $396,305 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5109…5e9cbacked No4c123,302$4,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,597.932937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes79c16,567$13,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,485.5717751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe491…ccd1backed Yes80c10,641$8,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,151.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No20c6,303$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.619440.2%78 W · 116 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed No2c5,399$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.851118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-36.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes80c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0003043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb17a…fe13backed Yes80c4,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No17c3,313$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.83933.3%13 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+39.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes79c2,493$1,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.265362.3%33 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e07…6a8ebacked Yes78c2,200$1,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.28475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ce…54a5backed Yes80c2,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x541c…c462backed Yes80c1,600$1,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99d4…c2c6backed No10c1,512$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.091118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-68.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes79c1,366$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.3223741.4%98 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f07…0170backed Yes76c1,364$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.64520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-73.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4999…cc96backed No23c1,325$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cf1…8277backed Yes80c1,057$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd215…b4eebacked No21c1,040$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.4837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17be…7a33backed No21c1,012$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.521921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.20per pick41cpaid-68.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0ec7…f874backed Yes75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2503100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No19c964.12$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.4523041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2a8…2a44backed Yes80c849$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.81553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcd9…6c92backed No21c825$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.25650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4569…6ae5backed Yes79c817.78$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.732100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes78c752.15$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.473354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50e8…ac57backed Yes79c747$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.87757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd416…d9e2backed No22c745.08$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.475044%22 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43d7…54a7backed Yes79c727$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.671942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd001…3ceabacked No21c694$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.74540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-35.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf58d…a617backed Yes79c680$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.82055%11 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed No21c664.98$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.233923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-52%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61ef…b300backed No20c632$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.490%0 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe617…f251backed Yes79c631.63$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No18c615.12$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.6529926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb279…173abacked Yes80c609.38$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.882100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+56.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0e0…1acebacked Yes79c600$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-32.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x293b…c83bbacked No21c599$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.791637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No19c570.49$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.0815641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32d0…6070backed No13c553.08$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.821136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No21c533.75$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.516127.9%17 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No23c527$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6648236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes80c513.36$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.2636538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed No20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013150.4%66 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa952…5ca1backed Yes80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13ce…bf33backed Yes79c500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-68.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Yes78c499.98$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No20c486$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.812552%13 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b1a…99f7backed No16c483$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick27cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No19c459.79$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0716741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bc4…4a8ebacked Yes79c430$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.31533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x319c…4a94backed Yes79c428$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.88633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-33.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30ee…a587backed Yes74c419.32$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.321030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd07…0058backed Yes79c411$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.311833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid0%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8d9…08d2backed No18c408$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.44944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed No13c400$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5313321.1%28 W · 105 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No20c400$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8028528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x677f…1228backed No17c360$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes79c357$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.972454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed Yes3c352.73$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.151729.4%5 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.21per pick9cpaid+344.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No10c346.76$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7416737.1%62 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes77c327.18$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.97837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c9…af45backed Yes78c321$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.621250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71f6…ea40backed No22c321$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.622744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c7…5510backed Yes79c300$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-38.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04ec…580fbacked Yes80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+27.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed No10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-31.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No20c290.45$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9813337.6%50 W · 83 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc351…08f7backed Yes79c274$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.543100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+77.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x636a…09aabacked No21c272$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.122055%11 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1629…9e4cbacked No24c270$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3097…399dbacked Yes76c270$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06a2…8015backed Yes80c250.31$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7b…9ab9backed Yes80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick70cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked No12c250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303935.9%14 W · 25 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No16c243.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.648752.9%46 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No15c236.73$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.441549.7%15 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x465c…6e53backed Yes79c226$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.461827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-51.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c65…5ad5backed No21c226$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a9…fee3backed No16c209$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.441127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-52%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4047328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed No20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403228.1%9 W · 23 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-42.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No19c198.42$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4667232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce6…16a3backed No19c195.73$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.962321.7%5 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccc2…271abacked Yes79c187$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.271957.9%11 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+71.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No18c166.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.081,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes73c166.7$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.014930.6%15 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No10c165$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.52013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x385f…3c30backed No20c163$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.61216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-77.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes70c158.37$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2216453.7%88 W · 76 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No19c157.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.727931.6%25 W · 54 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf13d…9896backed No21c156$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.76520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10df…04a9backed Yes79c154.62$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.883125.8%8 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed Yes77c150$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.51711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.20per pick32cpaid-83.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2d38…e898backed Yes79c149$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.292045%9 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8812…4fe3backed Yes80c147.5$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked No19c145.89$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.49496.1%3 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-84%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes76c138.12$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8410632.1%34 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x612d…3fd1backed Yes79c137$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.77580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No20c130.7$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.563324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e7e…3e1dbacked Yes79c127$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.67977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick56cpaid+65.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.