Movies · resolved market
Will Sirāt win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x916bb8a256c4369c8c909c543e82a03d73a7fa15ee52c4a09b363c0a35c8d522
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,549 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,704$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.23 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 3c | 3,087$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.42 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 4c | 2,712$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.16 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd5…57acbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 1,808$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 1,574$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…773dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,534$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eeb…0ca9backed Yes | 7c | 1,454$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec8e…39b0backed Yes | 4c | 1,377$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfc…e387backed Yes | 4c | 1,226$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13bf…debabacked Yes | 5c | 1,050$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 3c | 997.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 2c | 965.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 41 | 0%0 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b0…dc4bbacked Yes | 3c | 951.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed Yes | 4c | 948.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x115a…e4a6backed Yes | 2c | 917.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Yes | 3c | 812$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 3c | 606.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 3c | 595.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 577.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…a20dbacked Yes | 5c | 563.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 4c | 552.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 2c | 549.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5d…1810backed Yes | 6c | 536.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 518.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bf…8b30backed Yes | 10c | 513.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef70…eff0backed Yes | 4c | 511.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…932fbacked Yes | 3c | 504.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 476.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6f…4224backed Yes | 7c | 472.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 4c | 431$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6a…509cbacked Yes | 4c | 409.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16c…f869backed Yes | 7c | 294.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 3c | 294.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 4c | 239.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf810…7a7dbacked Yes | 6c | 238.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fa…5ca4backed Yes | 6c | 211.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sirāt win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will F1 win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Frankenstein win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sinners win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.