Music · resolved market
Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 150k and 200k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x623749ed9e8a363499c4101071396e2a3594c8a8ba744e7f4cace7193e6c3625
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,216 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 3,597$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…2372backed Yes | 26c | 1,121$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8669…7111backed Yes | 35c | 1,050$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed Yes | 12c | 891$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…49f3backed No | 65c | 837$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 19c | 826$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2386…1722backed Yes | 45c | 821.27$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.75 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…7328backed No | 76c | 779$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked Yes | 16c | 725$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +137.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 694.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d2e9backed Yes | 12c | 686$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 18c | 624$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.68 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 53c | 620.99$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.67 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 603$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 40c | 597.52$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.32 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc70…50c0backed Yes | 17c | 590$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0016…1b7abacked No | 78c | 588$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…db77backed Yes | 22c | 547$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 70c | 515.34$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.55 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 79c | 510$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes | 12c | 394$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 12cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked No | 67c | 381$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7e…7dfdbacked Yes | 33c | 381$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 20c | 377.34$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.51 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1326…d13dbacked No | 74c | 357$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 48c | 356$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.39 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefaa…8716backed Yes | 16c | 350$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b9…0aaebacked Yes | 16c | 350$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 21c | 322.84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 311.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.09 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2b…a065backed No | 65c | 278$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 56c | 272$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.96 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed No | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 13c | 244.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 28c | 229.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…8cf3backed Yes | 24c | 210$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.6 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 74c | 208.4$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +414.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 6c | 195$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 179.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.71 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x67f2…6a72backed No | 78c | 175$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…4d9abacked No | 74c | 168$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 166.4$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.03 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…fa2abacked Yes | 22c | 165$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +200.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…ca4fbacked Yes | 17c | 164$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes | 22c | 135$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 17c | 132$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…3761backed No | 80c | 123.06$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…bdf1backed Yes | 35c | 112$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 14c | 99.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.67 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 34c | 91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…4374backed No | 80c | 86.77$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…ef17backed No | 78c | 84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 18c | 69.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed No | 64c | 69.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9a…a1f5backed Yes | 30c | 68.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +69%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…1b71backed Yes | 23c | 59.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 69c | 55.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 44c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed No | 65c | 47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 39c | 34.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 49c | 30.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…2af9backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddec…4b75backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 150k and 200k?this page
- Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be at least 400k?No won
- Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 200k and 250k?No won
- Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 250k and 300k?No won
- Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k?No won
- Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k?No won
- Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be less than 150k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.