Music · resolved market
Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 200k and 250k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bab5de9476606758b5b5de4353b36e4f23b1afaca4ba3b406e287aa2b6a7e9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,148 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 1c | 2,057$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed No | 75c | 1,695$1,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.03 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b0…53c6backed Yes | 5c | 1,039$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 7c | 631.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2b…d78bbacked No | 74c | 589$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 576.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed No | 56c | 547$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed No | 64c | 543$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked Yes | 28c | 516$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 11c | 495.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 485.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 36c | 448$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 16c | 445.83$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 6c | 416.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed No | 72c | 413$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d4…e1efbacked Yes | 44c | 393$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 389.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 388.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 13c | 377.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 35c | 366$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.1 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa27…d1d3backed No | 65c | 366$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked Yes | 36c | 344$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f5…8e1ebacked Yes | 26c | 334$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 5c | 318.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a7…0af9backed Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 8c | 291.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 6c | 281.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c9…5015backed Yes | 7c | 276.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 261.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked Yes | 26c | 255$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374b…9a1fbacked No | 64c | 249$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2386…1722backed Yes | 35c | 236.6$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x621a…d30ebacked Yes | 8c | 235.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…8cf3backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 163.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 16c | 162.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…0e2bbacked Yes | 44c | 154$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…1dcfbacked No | 72c | 103$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6c20backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 11c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefaa…8716backed Yes | 16c | 84.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9a…a1f5backed Yes | 19c | 70.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +69%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 200k and 250k?this page
- Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be at least 400k?No won
- Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 150k and 200k?Yes won
- Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 250k and 300k?No won
- Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k?No won
- Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k?No won
- Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be less than 150k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.