Music · resolved market
Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be at least 400k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf377dac16fe9780f36fdf396afd3c191019086c6b6ee13c3ff6c7050fbd5935c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,534 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6eb3…573abacked Yes | 6c | 1,250$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…9720backed Yes | 1c | 1,038$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…3c25backed Yes | 12c | 835$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked Yes | 12c | 733$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 3c | 670.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes | 12c | 560$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 12c | 432$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…9d41backed Yes | 13c | 387$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 9c | 377.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed Yes | 18c | 344$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 328.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d3…f807backed Yes | 6c | 247.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed Yes | 12c | 240$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…6cd7backed Yes | 12c | 232$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 213.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 187.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd814…8329backed Yes | 18c | 162.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe46…8b21backed Yes | 18c | 153.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked Yes | 12c | 93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 79c | 28.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be at least 400k?this page
- Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 150k and 200k?Yes won
- Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 200k and 250k?No won
- Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 250k and 300k?No won
- Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k?No won
- Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k?No won
- Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be less than 150k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.