Weather · resolved market
Will Seattle have between 3 and 3.5 inches of precipitation in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30c7d5a0c3cc53cbad5568d3072222670512f6e4556cc0e5bf084a32b3c71531
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed No | 72c | 1,828$1,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.84 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed Yes | 17c | 1,574$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked Yes | 28c | 1,539$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.92 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…b3c2backed No | 75c | 1,104$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612d…3fd1backed Yes | 14c | 929$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +191.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…2372backed Yes | 14c | 913$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked No | 72c | 771$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.88 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked No | 72c | 768$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.04 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked No | 78c | 628$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.16 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed Yes | 28c | 624$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.72 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 28c | 611$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.08 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 22c | 601$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.22 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a41…1160backed Yes | 28c | 593$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…f4acbacked Yes | 21c | 396.93$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.77 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked Yes | 25c | 385$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked Yes | 25c | 382$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcc…8ef0backed Yes | 25c | 337$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf427…15e1backed No | 74c | 299.89$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 21c | 217.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed No | 71c | 215$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed Yes | 29c | 215$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…3ef8backed Yes | 15c | 184.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x259f…14d5backed Yes | 30c | 132.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2944…c11abacked Yes | 14c | 121.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x918f…907cbacked Yes | 24c | 87.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c43…c080backed Yes | 16c | 86.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 20c | 73.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 20c | 66.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 25c | 50.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 35.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 67c | 34.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5332…baafbacked Yes | 31c | 34.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 29.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle have between 3 and 3.5 inches of precipitation in April?this page
- Will Seattle have between 2.5 and 3 inches of precipitation in April?Yes won
- Will Seattle have between 3.5 and 4 inches of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Seattle have between 4 and 4.5 inches of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Seattle have between 4.5 and 5 inches of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Seattle have less than 2.5 inches of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Seattle have more than 5 inches of precipitation in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.