Weather · resolved market
Will Seattle have less than 2.5 inches of precipitation in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5971bb0dcb15593841f84ccd5a272d8efe397ad82c04919d9c76c16f848de1ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e6f…6487backed Yes | 22c | 1,370$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed No | 79c | 940$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.28 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…aeb8backed Yes | 21c | 940$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…d8c5backed No | 78c | 847$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed Yes | 22c | 835$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.7 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes | 17c | 724$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.08 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked No | 78c | 675$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed No | 78c | 665$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked Yes | 44c | 600$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…74ebbacked No | 56c | 424$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.56 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 5c | 384.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 11.6%8 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…3ef8backed Yes | 43c | 295.16$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.06 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6625…7a6bbacked Yes | 18c | 288.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked Yes | 25c | 281$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…02c0backed No | 75c | 280$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…858cbacked Yes | 18c | 270.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 59c | 260.77$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.22 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 32c | 251.31$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.93 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked Yes | 21c | 246.91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked No | 79c | 217.6$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…b250backed No | 62c | 192.78$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…16e5backed No | 62c | 189.86$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2164…a853backed No | 62c | 184.74$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0b…72e4backed No | 62c | 184.61$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb7…8ae0backed No | 62c | 184.51$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…6e75backed No | 62c | 184.42$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4a…36b7backed No | 62c | 184.09$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73de…ea44backed No | 62c | 184.08$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd093…a20abacked No | 62c | 183.54$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17df…f015backed No | 62c | 183.44$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…78febacked No | 62c | 183.34$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…922cbacked No | 62c | 181.83$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e3…4e41backed No | 62c | 181.7$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe1…206dbacked No | 62c | 179.64$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…2261backed No | 56c | 176$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ca…cbddbacked No | 62c | 175.27$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 161.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 160.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…f4acbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 131.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe260…3f01backed Yes | 26c | 116.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x918f…907cbacked Yes | 17c | 112.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 97.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 19c | 78.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5332…baafbacked Yes | 19c | 77.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed No | 49c | 73.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 34c | 63.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9788…42c3backed Yes | 30c | 57.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked Yes | 27c | 40.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…eb33backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 75c | 19.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce5…1a87backed No | 75c | 16.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle have less than 2.5 inches of precipitation in April?this page
- Will Seattle have between 2.5 and 3 inches of precipitation in April?Yes won
- Will Seattle have between 3 and 3.5 inches of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Seattle have between 3.5 and 4 inches of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Seattle have between 4 and 4.5 inches of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Seattle have between 4.5 and 5 inches of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Seattle have more than 5 inches of precipitation in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.