Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3acc06a95895e69efeeaae4dfdce738b91702c94556b230208b4f0438be8e4e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $331,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $310,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $331,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 288 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 18c | 4,910$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.97 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…3c01backed Yes | 25c | 3,813$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 13c | 3,000$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.02 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…75e7backed Yes | 13c | 2,286$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 37c | 2,000$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.92 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -73%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe67d…8180backed Yes | 1c | 1,820$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66d6…50c7backed Yes | 23c | 1,818$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 13c | 1,741$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.64 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked Yes | 19c | 1,497$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.43 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…f183backed Yes | 19c | 1,442$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…f199backed Yes | 15c | 1,380$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 15c | 1,355$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.21 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…8cc1backed Yes | 18c | 1,354$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 9c | 1,349$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.46 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 16c | 1,331$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.22 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 20c | 1,266$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.78 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…01e3backed Yes | 13c | 1,263$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.19 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…6411backed Yes | 16c | 1,253$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes | 14c | 1,232$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.48 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes | 19c | 1,178$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.82 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked Yes | 19c | 1,174$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.06 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafea…230bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,161$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…38d2backed Yes | 18c | 1,128$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +56%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0016…1b7abacked Yes | 16c | 1,123$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,077$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.92 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…e748backed Yes | 16c | 1,046$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed Yes | 19c | 1,036$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.84 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes | 19c | 1,025$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.75 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc596…2428backed Yes | 20c | 1,015$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed Yes | 12c | 1,008$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4120…153dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…50ecbacked No | 80c | 990$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes | 19c | 975$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed Yes | 19c | 974$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 74c | 935.21$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.68 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed Yes | 13c | 913$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.23 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…a432backed Yes | 19c | 909$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked Yes | 12c | 902$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.41 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…0acbbacked Yes | 19c | 892$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 16c | 884.92$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…0176backed Yes | 19c | 884$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…5afdbacked Yes | 13c | 878$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.14 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x668b…3884backed Yes | 13c | 866$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…db77backed Yes | 14c | 829$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.01 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x523d…cc1dbacked Yes | 18c | 825$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 13c | 825$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…275ebacked Yes | 17c | 806$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed Yes | 19c | 785$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed Yes | 20c | 772$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x750b…7a65backed Yes | 13c | 771$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…857abacked Yes | 21c | 767$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…644ebacked Yes | 17c | 766$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 13c | 765.21$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.59 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…b4eebacked Yes | 16c | 757$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 752.27$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.61 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 19c | 746$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.87 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 13c | 744$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.47 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed Yes | 16c | 737$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…3c30backed Yes | 16c | 735$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…81a5backed Yes | 12c | 733$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 63c | 731.18$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.15 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed Yes | 19c | 731$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.89 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked Yes | 13c | 725$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed Yes | 18c | 723$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.14 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…5514backed Yes | 13c | 709$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed Yes | 13c | 694$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.22 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes | 13c | 686$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 16c | 663$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.08 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed No | 80c | 648$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c88…8570backed Yes | 23c | 646.69$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425a…78cbbacked Yes | 18c | 637$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 10c | 627.54$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed No | 79c | 620$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed Yes | 16c | 612$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked Yes | 19c | 609$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.71 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 12c | 606.66$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.31 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed Yes | 12c | 605$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7c…5a5fbacked Yes | 19c | 585$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…a675backed Yes | 17c | 577$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.83 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 568.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 564.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4b…1fb3backed Yes | 11c | 564$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 13c | 559$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 13c | 551$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed Yes | 16c | 546$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…83e5backed Yes | 19c | 544$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed Yes | 16c | 544$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…904bbacked Yes | 21c | 535$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.35 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed Yes | 19c | 527$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed Yes | 16c | 519$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed Yes | 13c | 517$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…6cb4backed Yes | 13c | 513$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…6bbebacked Yes | 19c | 499$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab1…57eabacked Yes | 9c | 492.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe26e…e4b3backed Yes | 20c | 490.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 16c | 489$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes | 13c | 486$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3d…aa1abacked Yes | 19c | 479$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34be…6797backed Yes | 19c | 477$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?this page
- Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.