Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf4e0e5a4825e829490808d950849cc1350263c38aeafaa7ef9207fd61fb0ad8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86b2…383dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…d5b7backed Yes | 4c | 3,508$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.82 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 8c | 3,468$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.67 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 9c | 3,207$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.73 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,023$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 3c | 2,039$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa768…c0fbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,904$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 3c | 1,047$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 974.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 8c | 890$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…3039backed Yes | 4c | 880.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 5c | 814.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 813.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…9816backed Yes | 5c | 790.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…672abacked Yes | 3c | 655.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 3c | 558.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 3c | 550.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 4c | 516.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x374b…9a1fbacked Yes | 12c | 487$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca06…5e9ebacked Yes | 3c | 475.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 5c | 408.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked Yes | 10c | 391$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…1dcfbacked Yes | 10c | 341$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x857a…6f66backed Yes | 6c | 317.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…70d9backed Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed Yes | 6c | 276$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 7c | 271.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked Yes | 12c | 257$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…2c2ebacked Yes | 13c | 245.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…50ecbacked Yes | 6c | 241$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…18c6backed Yes | 6c | 237.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 235$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 210.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed Yes | 11c | 202$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7086…f376backed Yes | 7c | 189$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7c…1439backed Yes | 8c | 152.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +164.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 13c | 129$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…a23bbacked Yes | 10c | 125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…ce56backed Yes | 10c | 125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6da…7e3ebacked Yes | 11c | 93.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?this page
- Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.