Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc24eb4117f0afd9c6f7d7d141500ef960e472a04baab50b1645ea2147d6d82cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $190,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $190,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x73ab…5468backed Yes | 0c | 27,482$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.54 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fe…4a5bbacked Yes | 0c | 27,332$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2c…89e5backed Yes | 1c | 19,819$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 10,916$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes | 0c | 6,104$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b2…383dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,702$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5e…de1dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,223$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 3,722$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…66e7backed Yes | 1c | 3,375$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f37…b1d3backed Yes | 1c | 3,087$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 2,697$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x857a…6f66backed Yes | 1c | 2,551$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Yes | 1c | 2,218$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 1c | 2,103$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Yes | 5c | 2,090$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc6…0c3cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,939$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,618$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x688f…30dcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,529$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 1c | 1,214$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,203$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6934…8ac0backed Yes | 1c | 1,105$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 1c | 1,068$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes | 1c | 1,042$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d2…2c5abacked Yes | 2c | 1,036$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf98d…9df5backed Yes | 3c | 977.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d4…0e72backed Yes | 2c | 907.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 1c | 871.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 1c | 824.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…9469backed Yes | 3c | 790.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 2c | 767.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4241…4da7backed Yes | 2c | 555.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6e…2259backed Yes | 2c | 500.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Yes | 3c | 425.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1f…faa0backed Yes | 3c | 373.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed Yes | 14c | 93.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?this page
- Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.