Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42c5b40ce67dd7730d4bd522c2971217e4071c0a1c814ba0998fa8fa59bcfa3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 10c | 3,000$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.43 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…e6cebacked Yes | 19c | 2,249$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.31 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…c13fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,716$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e08…7e2ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,553$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b3…55cfbacked Yes | 22c | 1,440$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed Yes | 13c | 1,398$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.74 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 8c | 1,206$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.54 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 9c | 1,187$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.54 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 17c | 1,138$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.16 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…92b3backed Yes | 11c | 1,036$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.79 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…36b2backed Yes | 12c | 978$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bc…43e9backed Yes | 14c | 942$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed Yes | 14c | 942$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.88 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…6b65backed Yes | 12c | 937$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.08 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 12c | 890$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 13c | 879.01$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.88 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 5c | 860.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e0…a63bbacked Yes | 17c | 832$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 11c | 810.06$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked Yes | 16c | 780$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d03…ef8ebacked Yes | 16c | 758$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 12c | 739$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.68 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed No | 78c | 728$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…a086backed Yes | 9c | 720.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed No | 78c | 712$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.64 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 13c | 703.41$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.06 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed Yes | 19c | 668$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.92 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x673d…e929backed Yes | 11c | 666$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad04…dce5backed Yes | 18c | 649$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.82 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed Yes | 18c | 644$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.92 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 16c | 643.54$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked Yes | 13c | 643$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed Yes | 18c | 632$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…b3c2backed Yes | 12c | 579$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff0c…36eebacked Yes | 13c | 578$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed Yes | 13c | 569$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…d5b7backed Yes | 14c | 565.83$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 549.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed Yes | 13c | 541$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.33 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1c…7406backed Yes | 8c | 540$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed Yes | 16c | 535$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 13c | 528$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked Yes | 12c | 520$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 518.03$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc596…2428backed Yes | 19c | 516.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 14c | 493$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.02 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed Yes | 13c | 480$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacb1…6de8backed Yes | 12c | 476$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked Yes | 13c | 466$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…1837backed No | 75c | 462$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…4b87backed Yes | 25c | 462$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +168.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 6c | 455.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 9c | 424.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 17c | 423.69$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…0c32backed Yes | 9c | 385$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes | 9c | 368$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked Yes | 16c | 351$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 13c | 348$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 77c | 340.25$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.26 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427e…5ab4backed Yes | 13c | 335$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 12c | 324.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed Yes | 6c | 306$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 11c | 297$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…9896backed Yes | 14c | 293$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…eae0backed Yes | 9c | 293$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…4d86backed Yes | 18c | 288$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6f…6890backed Yes | 13c | 283$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb6…cfe8backed Yes | 9c | 282$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 18c | 279$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f2…6a72backed Yes | 6c | 279$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 9c | 276.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5516…2263backed Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ad…8ef7backed Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed Yes | 12c | 246$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…18c6backed Yes | 18c | 237.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c2…1398backed Yes | 7c | 216$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 214.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…f7c0backed Yes | 9c | 211.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 10c | 208.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a56…3fcbbacked Yes | 10c | 202.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8f…ed86backed Yes | 24c | 196.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 195.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…4146backed Yes | 16c | 195$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38c1…2f84backed Yes | 19c | 194$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…a3a2backed Yes | 7c | 192$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…f991backed Yes | 8c | 185$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 177.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 15c | 166.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…ce56backed Yes | 9c | 161$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 14c | 145.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 14c | 141$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…c8a9backed Yes | 9c | 137$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked Yes | 9c | 135$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…9340backed Yes | 12c | 128.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f1…485cbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed Yes | 9c | 114$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked Yes | 16c | 109.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…0144backed No | 76c | 102$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8a…07d3backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?this page
- Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.