Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf829129cd05db888741ad290c786a1d71db5f8bb8493d8bc07e21b826db4d328
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $446,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $414,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $446,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 2c | 8,970$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 3c | 8,085$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.55 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…6a9fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,969$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…5252backed Yes | 5c | 3,551$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b6…22a1backed Yes | 5c | 3,524$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd2…9676backed Yes | 4c | 3,260$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2e6dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,189$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e3…1b8ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,160$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…fbd9backed Yes | 5c | 3,140$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…d5b7backed Yes | 9c | 3,064$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.4 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ae…8989backed Yes | 5c | 2,863$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7239…d757backed Yes | 5c | 2,840$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab0…4fbebacked Yes | 5c | 2,834$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…8d11backed Yes | 5c | 2,794$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9beb…4ed6backed Yes | 5c | 2,676$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…d6dbbacked Yes | 5c | 2,625$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…ef29backed Yes | 5c | 2,565$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…011ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,410$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc6…0c3cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,254$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1741…11d9backed Yes | 4c | 2,246$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…6940backed Yes | 5c | 2,222$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…3627backed Yes | 5c | 2,200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8277…1a41backed Yes | 5c | 2,175$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08f6…9016backed Yes | 5c | 2,119$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3716…4fb2backed Yes | 5c | 2,114$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa7…cc70backed Yes | 5c | 2,103$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x202f…d0f9backed Yes | 5c | 1,988$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31df…692ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,911$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcea8…0810backed Yes | 5c | 1,884$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…b039backed Yes | 5c | 1,871$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe437…98dcbacked Yes | 5c | 1,817$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf073…8a82backed Yes | 5c | 1,809$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ef…ccf9backed Yes | 5c | 1,789$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b6…8307backed Yes | 5c | 1,779$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1c…4fd7backed Yes | 4c | 1,778$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…248abacked Yes | 5c | 1,689$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961d…7db3backed Yes | 4c | 1,660$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…dc9cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,655$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c07…9a77backed Yes | 5c | 1,654$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…8d41backed Yes | 5c | 1,653$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ab…9119backed Yes | 4c | 1,618$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…680fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,610$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,607$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.18 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 4c | 1,593$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe01d…5b97backed Yes | 4c | 1,583$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1478…fc4bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,564$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29fe…218fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,562$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 5c | 1,519$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.62 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…a918backed Yes | 5c | 1,493$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cb…0574backed Yes | 5c | 1,490$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed Yes | 10c | 1,472$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.09 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1576…168bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,449$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…2abbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,426$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…3871backed Yes | 5c | 1,406$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79e0…14f4backed Yes | 4c | 1,394$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae85…5884backed Yes | 5c | 1,388$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7d…a51fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,381$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda94…9409backed Yes | 5c | 1,380$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd15b…1dbcbacked Yes | 5c | 1,373$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b51…538fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,350$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4428…1202backed Yes | 4c | 1,321$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…3039backed Yes | 10c | 1,275$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.27 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…c6acbacked Yes | 5c | 1,272$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef35…144bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,238$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…2956backed Yes | 5c | 1,235$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8e…c3c8backed Yes | 5c | 1,224$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcf…ae96backed Yes | 4c | 1,222$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ac…54bbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,220$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x149f…4a34backed Yes | 4c | 1,218$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 5c | 1,188$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…cb0fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,135$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a66…d29abacked Yes | 4c | 1,132$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,125$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4df…91acbacked Yes | 4c | 1,124$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceec…ee53backed Yes | 5c | 1,122$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555b…a970backed Yes | 5c | 1,112$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d94…57fbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,104$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f5…e319backed Yes | 5c | 1,096$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…cf2ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,044$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc396…91c0backed Yes | 5c | 1,030$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b6…0d78backed Yes | 4c | 1,018$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b11…f03fbacked Yes | 4c | 991$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…7818backed Yes | 5c | 937$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…13b9backed Yes | 5c | 930$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1850…c06bbacked Yes | 5c | 922$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e4…a846backed Yes | 5c | 913$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 887.12$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.12 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee7…f75cbacked Yes | 5c | 819$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd346…daf6backed Yes | 5c | 784$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 6c | 773.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7c…1016backed Yes | 5c | 768$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3300…c936backed Yes | 5c | 767$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813c…f6d3backed Yes | 5c | 754$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…4ebfbacked Yes | 5c | 741$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9305…32aabacked Yes | 5c | 739$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…5e92backed Yes | 5c | 719$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e1…79cfbacked Yes | 9c | 710$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…6d61backed Yes | 4c | 705$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a7…db79backed Yes | 5c | 694$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa75b…c6f9backed Yes | 5c | 676$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?this page
- Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.