Weather · resolved market
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x897a2f88e1b65776ac5af0440833eea638395f0af0df4bed47e83f64c9b9a1e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $596,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $589,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $596,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 896 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 67c | 23,626$15,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,679.32 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 24c | 10,423$2,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,525.6 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 6,054$4,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,495.68 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…eb4bbacked No | 19c | 4,629$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…3c01backed Yes | 75c | 4,082$3,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 60c | 3,221$1,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.44 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 60c | 3,199$1,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,267.16 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 64c | 2,947$1,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.22 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed Yes | 35c | 2,751$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,788.15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75aa…a5b3backed Yes | 75c | 2,581$1,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed Yes | 45c | 2,539$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.76 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e89…ab56backed No | 25c | 2,388$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 59c | 2,307$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.41 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…5f45backed No | 1c | 2,154$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 12c | 2,151$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.68 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked No | 57c | 2,140$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.7 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de7…a9c8backed Yes | 56c | 2,118$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…fc01backed No | 46c | 2,098$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed No | 61c | 2,072$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.84 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 70c | 2,072$1,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9192…383ebacked Yes | 75c | 1,963$1,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…dc49backed No | 25c | 1,955$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b64…8f6ebacked Yes | 75c | 1,863$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf09b…a448backed No | 25c | 1,860$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed Yes | 53c | 1,860$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 56c | 1,843$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…1505backed No | 25c | 1,811$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x242d…ce31backed Yes | 75c | 1,807$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…0918backed Yes | 75c | 1,805$1,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2e…fe02backed No | 34c | 1,794$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked Yes | 66c | 1,787$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…c85bbacked No | 25c | 1,781$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…c856backed Yes | 75c | 1,780$1,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed No | 35c | 1,745$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 73c | 1,741$1,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…748fbacked No | 25c | 1,728$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d05…1267backed Yes | 75c | 1,693$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…973dbacked No | 30c | 1,692$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd759…b63bbacked No | 25c | 1,686$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab2…65cfbacked Yes | 75c | 1,679$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed No | 38c | 1,665$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.67 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71fb…9b65backed Yes | 35c | 1,650$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f23…2124backed No | 37c | 1,634$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed Yes | 71c | 1,628$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.36 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb751…bd8bbacked No | 25c | 1,625$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc673…175fbacked Yes | 75c | 1,623$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bab…5fa0backed Yes | 57c | 1,618$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 47c | 1,595$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…6e13backed Yes | 39c | 1,578$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.58 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x120f…8534backed No | 25c | 1,577$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed Yes | 47c | 1,570$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.34 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0839…cf54backed Yes | 75c | 1,548$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed No | 29c | 1,535$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.16 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c37…d2c7backed Yes | 75c | 1,501$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1470…1cb4backed No | 25c | 1,500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 41c | 1,500$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec9…b7c0backed Yes | 47c | 1,486$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…8a09backed No | 25c | 1,481$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234a…cbffbacked No | 25c | 1,477$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…722fbacked Yes | 75c | 1,476$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 66c | 1,453$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.95 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f91…169cbacked No | 25c | 1,424$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce90…4f88backed Yes | 75c | 1,395$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…d5b7backed No | 37c | 1,386$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.54 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed No | 38c | 1,376$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6159…7501backed Yes | 65c | 1,367$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.81 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes | 63c | 1,357$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.48 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 37c | 1,350$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.76 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c07…956bbacked Yes | 67c | 1,347$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b5…cb8bbacked Yes | 75c | 1,344$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…5deebacked No | 25c | 1,344$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…f02dbacked No | 54c | 1,342$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa84…65dcbacked Yes | 75c | 1,337$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe63e…3204backed No | 32c | 1,330$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab1…9c6dbacked No | 25c | 1,330$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,328$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 41c | 1,305$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.18 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 69c | 1,300$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed No | 69c | 1,296$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed Yes | 66c | 1,285$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed Yes | 45c | 1,281$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.37 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed Yes | 54c | 1,280$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed Yes | 67c | 1,254$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.82 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…8e90backed No | 24c | 1,245$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked Yes | 64c | 1,242$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.12 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…6411backed No | 47c | 1,237$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…dae1backed Yes | 52c | 1,237$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…a5b8backed Yes | 55c | 1,213$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 1,200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked No | 65c | 1,198$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed Yes | 49c | 1,174$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.81 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 1,169$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.25 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76fd…e8c4backed Yes | 62c | 1,128$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ed…ec87backed No | 47c | 1,128$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked No | 46c | 1,123$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.58 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed No | 59c | 1,122$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +128.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 1c | 1,117$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed Yes | 51c | 1,102$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.98 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…6741backed No | 30c | 1,090$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed No | 36c | 1,089$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.04 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.