Music · resolved market
Will Lady Gaga win 3 Grammys?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d880d85cadbe01cf69b30215a8f7304f0bc3e31f6f92218b0b02c9f145e9780
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $668,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $377,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $668,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4d3…ad80backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc302…7409backed Yes | 0c | 29,996$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…e97cbacked Yes | 0c | 26,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca7…8cffbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1161…e98bbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 42c | 17,152$7,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,147.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 29c | 16,877$4,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,912.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4617…0aa2backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x559f…04a4backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27dd…b696backed Yes | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbae…7b24backed No | 4c | 13,776$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,274.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +3,083.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…e375backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked No | 71c | 12,048$8,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,515.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83bc…78fbbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes | 6c | 10,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed No | 3c | 4,137$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,991.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 3cpaid | +897.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 7c | 3,984$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,710.74 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 63c | 3,039$1,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.56 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 9c | 2,980$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1e0fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,902$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +137.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 2,635$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.14 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed No | 49c | 2,365$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…b679backed No | 60c | 2,000$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e62…ef0fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,735$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a88…b859backed No | 74c | 1,084$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,000$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 16c | 912$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 42c | 884.77$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49f8…8c04backed Yes | 27c | 831.66$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed Yes | 16c | 811$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 26c | 806.45$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Yes | 3c | 749.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 14c | 749.36$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 47c | 737.23$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.95 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b3…fa72backed Yes | 36c | 692.76$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed Yes | 17c | 664$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0606…1d57backed Yes | 2c | 510$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…3213backed Yes | 19c | 490$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 4c | 430.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +199%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes | 19c | 419$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 77c | 415.95$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.38 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed Yes | 18c | 354$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…3e65backed Yes | 9c | 324.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 11c | 290.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…359dbacked Yes | 38c | 256.92$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…d81fbacked Yes | 57c | 249.88$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…3137backed No | 80c | 225.52$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x149f…d306backed Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 15c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…b418backed Yes | 16c | 185$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 77c | 179$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked Yes | 17c | 168$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x750c…2fe3backed Yes | 38c | 167.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…ed24backed Yes | 38c | 167.21$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89b…41f4backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 144.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed No | 37c | 116.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 20c | 112$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 18c | 108.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b01…8521backed No | 78c | 108.4$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c8…c1c9backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x717f…3fb1backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c44…a66ebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…9890backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed No | 75c | 93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a8…0ae4backed Yes | 23c | 83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…7359backed Yes | 16c | 74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked Yes | 17c | 64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02da…fe1ebacked No | 69c | 62.24$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…c3debacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…8b22backed Yes | 39c | 56.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5325…c0b5backed Yes | 40c | 53.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…0f48backed Yes | 34c | 50.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce5…990dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 80c | 46.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…d0d3backed No | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…5f90backed No | 32c | 35.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba88…ec75backed Yes | 40c | 35.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a9…faebbacked Yes | 53c | 32.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked No | 61c | 27.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b8…c5dbbacked Yes | 46c | 23.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lady Gaga win 3 Grammys?this page
- Will Lady Gaga win 0 Grammys?No won
- Will Lady Gaga win 1 Grammy?No won
- Will Lady Gaga win 2 Grammys?Yes won
- Will Lady Gaga win 4 Grammys?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.