Music · resolved market
Will Lady Gaga win 1 Grammy?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50f48892ba7f8d82f446aa8919985d00e6d74e83922b89303b09a1caeb5c5a3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95cc…f215backed Yes | 18c | 807$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes | 18c | 596$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…827bbacked Yes | 16c | 554$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…95e1backed Yes | 18c | 526$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed Yes | 18c | 321$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes | 18c | 310$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked Yes | 18c | 302$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked Yes | 18c | 289$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 14c | 277.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 71c | 232$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed Yes | 18c | 212$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 30c | 130.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x02ce…2213backed Yes | 18c | 119$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 70c | 69.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0f…21b3backed Yes | 47c | 42.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 80c | 32.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 48 | 75%36 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lady Gaga win 1 Grammy?this page
- Will Lady Gaga win 0 Grammys?No won
- Will Lady Gaga win 2 Grammys?Yes won
- Will Lady Gaga win 3 Grammys?No won
- Will Lady Gaga win 4 Grammys?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.