Earnings · resolved market
Will Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5948c26308fcb2e24d895ffdaabae57ae2fb870550d5dcbe1ebcff7c76a7288a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked No | 11c | 1,162$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.17 | 262 | 50.4%132 W · 130 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e01…4003backed No | 7c | 1,090$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 9c | 981.7$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.61 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 6c | 888.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 10c | 844.35$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.66 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked No | 6c | 696.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 10c | 674$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.41 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked No | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b96…7f2dbacked Yes | 79c | 506.94$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.94 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 23c | 501.44$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.26 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 19c | 459.97$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked No | 12c | 404.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 8c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 302 | 15.2%46 W · 256 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa81d…7447backed No | 7c | 320.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…e8b4backed No | 7c | 272.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f6…a4a1backed No | 9c | 231$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +58%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9553…cfc7backed Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 6c | 196.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 7c | 190.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 181.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd3…7656backed No | 9c | 172.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1b…4b36backed No | 9c | 172.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 11c | 157.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 12c | 155$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 8c | 127.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d9…101abacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde4e…c278backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b12…a752backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef86…4689backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…6c6dbacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…325dbacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0606…1d57backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6e…abfebacked Yes | 80c | 36.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85fb…e1babacked Yes | 80c | 33.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…f91dbacked Yes | 80c | 33.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b9…e9e6backed Yes | 80c | 33.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3769…3c15backed Yes | 80c | 31.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede7…8035backed Yes | 80c | 29.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3ba0backed Yes | 80c | 29.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd1…cd88backed Yes | 80c | 28.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7798…b0d2backed Yes | 80c | 26.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…1104backed Yes | 80c | 23.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be1…7277backed Yes | 80c | 22.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b83…bdc2backed Yes | 80c | 22.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4381…4584backed Yes | 80c | 21.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 77c | 18.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.