AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ab29d0dba334629bb25c1fedac58edbc6a6a7d7d17cd30d04561ee9fbd43d99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $287,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $271,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $287,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 254 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 60c | 95,435$57,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,964.36 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 68c | 19,906$13,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,362.54 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed No | 25c | 18,581$4,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,581.44 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked No | 29c | 17,718$5,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,109.35 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +133.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81ef…39c1backed No | 32c | 16,180$5,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,206.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 68c | 13,406$9,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,242.62 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53bf…bc10backed Yes | 68c | 9,554$6,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,031.74 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 1c | 9,053$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.71 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…294cbacked No | 35c | 8,242$2,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,845.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 79c | 7,672$6,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,585.61 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba35…1b73backed No | 40c | 7,506$2,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,994.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…6573backed No | 13c | 6,281$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4a…0b5cbacked No | 32c | 6,096$1,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,939.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 78c | 5,939$4,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287.42 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfd33…4714backed No | 47c | 5,572$2,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,596.62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a4…ffebbacked No | 4c | 5,388$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 53c | 4,960$2,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,312.09 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x9557…6f2bbacked No | 29c | 4,727$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124c…cc50backed No | 29c | 3,929$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…9350backed No | 26c | 3,850$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +107%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 7c | 3,413$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.29 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 67c | 3,393$2,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.38 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed No | 32c | 3,276$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 12c | 2,817$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…534ebacked No | 28c | 2,551$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…58b7backed No | 4c | 2,162$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4503…af53backed No | 29c | 2,129$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…f332backed Yes | 50c | 2,000$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b0…b495backed No | 26c | 1,921$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 18c | 1,878$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.76 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…e5e2backed No | 5c | 1,829$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 34c | 1,813$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.41 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…5ceabacked No | 29c | 1,775$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.69 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ff…1775backed No | 6c | 1,715$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…a34fbacked No | 59c | 1,612$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f09…b05bbacked No | 3c | 1,592$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 1c | 1,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 52c | 1,402$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.05 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 63c | 1,386$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.82 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…89b4backed Yes | 68c | 1,333$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb19e…b2edbacked No | 3c | 1,262$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…ebc2backed Yes | 63c | 1,220$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed Yes | 72c | 1,170$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed No | 31c | 1,136$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked No | 32c | 1,080$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…74b0backed Yes | 62c | 971$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff67…ff54backed No | 31c | 929.24$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 72c | 913.23$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.06 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 72c | 808.36$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 62c | 802$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.76 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904d…7849backed No | 31c | 799.92$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…fb46backed No | 37c | 794$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed Yes | 63c | 773$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.01 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked No | 37c | 771$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.27 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed No | 24c | 716.51$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.59 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 34c | 702.68$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.12 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc168…5024backed No | 41c | 699.98$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 75c | 693.19$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.2 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…24e0backed No | 32c | 691.17$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…e584backed No | 30c | 678.02$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 70c | 655.87$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.51 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x442b…1bb7backed No | 27c | 605.32$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked No | 5c | 596.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d3…560fbacked No | 26c | 595.85$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 61c | 550.84$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.5 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…6698backed No | 38c | 538$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +127.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a1…62c7backed No | 32c | 527.82$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…0d7cbacked No | 15c | 514.17$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…8919backed No | 37c | 507$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.59 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e83…e26ebacked No | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +63%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed Yes | 68c | 499.99$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed No | 38c | 495.97$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.74 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 37c | 476$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.12 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe591…b3f6backed No | 32c | 470.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 30c | 450$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.3 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 67c | 447.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.75 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6543…ecbabacked No | 68c | 438.84$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +65%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…c3e8backed Yes | 60c | 431.38$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.85 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…6f9dbacked No | 59c | 425.91$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 13c | 409.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…fc02backed No | 54c | 392.93$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.25 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 22c | 388.79$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.53 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed No | 38c | 383$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.54 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…d4e0backed No | 27c | 371.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…9d09backed No | 27c | 371.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc35e…d368backed No | 34c | 367.48$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.48 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…db97backed No | 55c | 363.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc11b…db9dbacked No | 42c | 360$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff24…af32backed No | 29c | 358.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed Yes | 69c | 358.53$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.44 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb8…9a11backed No | 28c | 355.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…e83bbacked No | 19c | 339.59$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddb…3e71backed No | 44c | 336.84$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60a…90a7backed No | 32c | 313.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a9…735bbacked No | 32c | 313.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ce…97a7backed No | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e4…5364backed No | 32c | 312.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 17c | 310.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eef…d34ebacked No | 9c | 305.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 8?this page
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 4?No won
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 5?No won
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 6?No won
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.