TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xff24…af32

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
67
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 58 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2040%8 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$269.31
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.62
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$8.57
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$28
Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+47.3%+$23.64
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.33
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.1
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$16.84
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$259Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$259.5
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+54.9%+$54.87
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$292
US strikes Iraq by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+403.9%+$201.94
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$657Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+110.8%+$727.67
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 20 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT1741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffsbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.44
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winnerbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$32.79
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winnerbacked Passion UA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+300%+$30
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffsbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #16 Group Stagebacked TDK · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$40.85
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$564Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+26.5%+$149.62
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winnerbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs TDK - Map 2 Winnerbacked MOUZ NXT · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winnerbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+162.7%+$32.54
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winnerbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$255Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+27.7%+$70.43
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winnerbacked TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Counter-Strike: CSDIILIT vs Sangal (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup 1 Playoffsbacked CSDIILIT · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$10.84
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+27.4%+$15.51
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winnerbacked TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+44.6%+$45.76
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group Cbacked Rebels Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+66.1%+$12.64
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winnerbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$12
All 17 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick39cpaid+206.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-50.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-72.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+90.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+471.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+471.4%+$106.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+187.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Fnatic (BO5) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffsbacked Gentle Mates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+187.3%+$22.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+128.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+128.8%+$30.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$9.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$105
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.88
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.