TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Passion UAof Passion UA, FUT Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$281,413
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$284,797

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $281,413 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 237 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc257…358ebacked FUT Esports71c90,194$63,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63,935.9239249%192 W · 200 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Passion UA29c83,122$24,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,017.621051%107 W · 103 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked Passion UA31c17,157$5,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,809.1227133.2%90 W · 181 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked FUT Esports63c13,692$8,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,64332348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Passion UA39c11,075$4,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,702.93,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Passion UA39c9,642$3,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,873.5924550.2%123 W · 122 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Passion UA14c7,953$1,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,829.4281843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Passion UA29c5,064$1,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,586.4297040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Passion UA46c5,000$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,699.9928453.5%152 W · 132 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa0…1160backed Passion UA46c4,222$1,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,287.5412651.6%65 W · 61 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked Passion UA24c4,167$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,166.9213952.5%73 W · 66 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed FUT Esports76c4,067$3,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,090.9211655.2%64 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked FUT Esports55c4,000$2,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,21521251.4%109 W · 103 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed FUT Esports68c3,868$2,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,644.4433452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Passion UA24c2,924$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,224.4823861.3%146 W · 92 L+0.8wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked FUT Esports74c2,839$2,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100.6265650.3%330 W · 326 L-15.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d03…100ebacked FUT Esports77c2,833$2,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,178.341069.3%284 W · 126 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50c3…34d7backed FUT Esports58c2,475$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4403366.7%22 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Passion UA53c2,253$1,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.481,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked FUT Esports71c2,178$1,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,538.8925555.3%141 W · 114 L+1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x858e…1c3bbacked Passion UA42c2,076$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.715635.7%20 W · 36 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc83f…23e4backed FUT Esports73c2,000$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,459.993336.4%12 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked FUT Esports39c1,907$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.692,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed Passion UA27c1,900$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,38710335.9%37 W · 66 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Passion UA26c1,624$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,197.925,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked FUT Esports48c1,559$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.575245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Passion UA27c1,500$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,09561228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Passion UA34c1,422$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.297,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf459…7a53backed FUT Esports71c1,408$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.54639.1%18 W · 28 L-6.5wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-25.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Passion UA25c1,393$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.7842440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed FUT Esports73c1,375$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00018347.5%87 W · 96 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed FUT Esports48c1,364$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.911240.2%45 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Passion UA27c1,352$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$990.0216738.9%65 W · 102 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fe9…706abacked FUT Esports69c1,264$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87216448.2%79 W · 85 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Passion UA60c1,228$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.4618049.4%89 W · 91 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed FUT Esports75c1,212$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.4255043.1%237 W · 313 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x370d…a9e0backed FUT Esports8c1,200$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.516028.3%17 W · 43 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Passion UA38c1,151$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.962,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed FUT Esports56c1,140$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64027950.2%140 W · 139 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Passion UA30c1,074$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.3320944%92 W · 117 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked FUT Esports44c1,027$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.153,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed Passion UA36c1,000$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.520838%79 W · 129 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed FUT Esports74c1,000$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.9555845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked FUT Esports67c1,000$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67043640.6%177 W · 259 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed Passion UA35c1,000$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65013743.8%60 W · 77 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed FUT Esports66c1,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66045455.1%250 W · 204 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb00a…c58cbacked Passion UA31c988.03$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.178444%37 W · 47 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Passion UA36c914.48$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.966,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Passion UA53c863.01$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.51,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c47…1189backed Passion UA26c853.85$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.851643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+79.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d73…044bbacked FUT Esports72c810.97$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.3515441.6%64 W · 90 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22ae…af00backed FUT Esports66c799.99$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53126451.5%136 W · 128 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed FUT Esports73c742.07$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.7145058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed FUT Esports68c724.04$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.494,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b22…ba7bbacked Passion UA50c659$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.6810345.6%47 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda1a…3407backed FUT Esports57c639.99$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.7928960.6%175 W · 114 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc76…3af1backed FUT Esports68c615.47$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.715048%24 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+50.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed FUT Esports35c591.67$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21096545.7%441 W · 524 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc1a…6049backed FUT Esports74c551.23$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b86…c943backed FUT Esports73c549.99$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.492755.6%15 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick67cpaid-20.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed Passion UA30c535.22$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.7515442.2%65 W · 89 L-10.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed FUT Esports79c501.54$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.3438868.3%265 W · 123 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+3.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a96…4e13backed FUT Esports74c500$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37022358.7%131 W · 92 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked FUT Esports67c480.55$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.65,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x200b…3bccbacked Passion UA20c470.05$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Passion UA30c466.67$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.671,04645%471 W · 575 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3911…30f3backed FUT Esports74c464.88$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.0126251.1%134 W · 128 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a89…a4d6backed FUT Esports68c456.89$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.1123842.4%101 W · 137 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d76…90c2backed FUT Esports45c450.14$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2044843.8%21 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8658…41c6backed FUT Esports71c434.31$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.6510354.4%56 W · 47 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4687…8d42backed Passion UA57c433.07$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.2252947.1%249 W · 280 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40b3…9ef3backed FUT Esports48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008053.8%43 W · 37 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c74…c217backed FUT Esports66c410$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.63240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaba0…62aabacked Passion UA34c410$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.62850%14 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Passion UA20c404.65$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.142,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FUT Esports19c402.25$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.215,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Passion UA38c400$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.752,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd5f…8a9bbacked FUT Esports50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20013540.7%55 W · 80 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe220…f862backed Passion UA23c399.99$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.992646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c67…e40ebacked Passion UA33c390.59$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.519642.9%84 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5453…a834backed FUT Esports77c388$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.8931654.7%173 W · 143 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Passion UA37c374.99$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.11,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e9…a86ebacked FUT Esports56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20019355.4%107 W · 86 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f9f…1e69backed FUT Esports74c351.35$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Passion UA21c350$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.551,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e19…d2b0backed Passion UA24c348.17$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.2652750.7%267 W · 260 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac9c…50d8backed FUT Esports33c347.85$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5425416.9%43 W · 211 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabd6…ca90backed FUT Esports73c343.57$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.19260.9%56 W · 36 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x602a…9a6ebacked Passion UA30c336.18$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.336841.2%28 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fc2…64d1backed Passion UA23c328.44$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.920942.1%88 W · 121 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed Passion UA35c325.51$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.5849850.2%250 W · 248 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c9…e194backed Passion UA31c322.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.582339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Passion UA29c314.99$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.6553444.9%240 W · 294 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4720…007bbacked Passion UA53c300$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1413053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd752…85d4backed FUT Esports52c300$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15736837.5%138 W · 230 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2cb…d235backed FUT Esports65c300$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1952437.5%9 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa05c…aa9bbacked FUT Esports71c286.85$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20521557.2%123 W · 92 L+0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Passion UA35c275$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.3638844.6%173 W · 215 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Passion UA23c274.93$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.081,67651.1%857 W · 819 L+21.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked FUT Esports77c273$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.2161754.8%338 W · 279 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.