TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vitalityof Vitality, TheMongolz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,180,875
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,303,435

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,180,875 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 451 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked TheMongolz23c174,177$39,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,762.9442440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccb2…8586backed Vitality67c149,168$99,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,682.073961.5%24 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed TheMongolz32c121,260$38,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,733.1421051%107 W · 103 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb726…0664backed Vitality67c88,859$59,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,337.6112649.2%62 W · 64 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked TheMongolz34c51,088$17,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,561.8983652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed TheMongolz27c42,559$11,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,394.0981843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed TheMongolz22c29,273$6,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,581.771,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac47…d234backed TheMongolz34c25,168$8,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,557.123435.3%12 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0fd9…3373backed Vitality67c23,470$15,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,821.796752.2%35 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Vitality80c23,371$18,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,7823,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed TheMongolz33c21,309$7,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,078.1864552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed TheMongolz35c15,000$5,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,25037946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Vitality64c14,707$9,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,294.6141649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed TheMongolz22c13,000$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,85071645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed TheMongolz23c13,000$2,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,979.9935153.8%189 W · 162 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked TheMongolz33c12,500$4,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,12523145.9%106 W · 125 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked TheMongolz30c11,545$3,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,501.733,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked TheMongolz27c10,663$2,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,88710251%52 W · 50 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+16.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6bd…b05abacked TheMongolz35c10,474$3,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,674.5419834.8%69 W · 129 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x38b0…060cbacked TheMongolz16c9,999$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.844546.7%21 W · 24 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+32.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed TheMongolz15c9,999$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.8219645.4%89 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked TheMongolz17c7,769$1,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,343.7832930.4%100 W · 229 L-21.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-50.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed Vitality65c7,754$5,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,728.6822448.7%109 W · 115 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed TheMongolz20c7,657$1,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,541.312648.4%61 W · 65 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-20.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2d73…044bbacked Vitality72c7,574$5,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,092.4315441.6%64 W · 90 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bb9…9dd0backed Vitality60c7,543$4,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,033.314173.2%30 W · 11 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+16.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed TheMongolz18c7,495$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355.328453.5%152 W · 132 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d90…9845backed TheMongolz35c7,429$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,600757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Vitality79c7,148$5,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,480.981838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked TheMongolz18c6,756$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,244.1216240.1%65 W · 97 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8a8…bdc6backed Vitality70c6,731$4,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,003.5510753.3%57 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked TheMongolz16c6,500$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.9828538.2%109 W · 176 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked TheMongolz9c5,556$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.3359839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed TheMongolz22c5,250$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15522142.5%94 W · 127 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed TheMongolz16c5,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.992619.2%5 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick27cpaid+31.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked TheMongolz16c4,941$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8091,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Vitality68c4,871$3,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,558.594942.9%21 W · 28 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e35…9ad1backed Vitality76c4,502$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.16366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked TheMongolz16c4,438$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71020539.5%81 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed TheMongolz16c4,411$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.4350833.5%170 W · 338 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7485…d9f3backed TheMongolz0c4,096$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Vitality73c3,690$2,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.4944957.5%258 W · 191 L-19.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2733…ac38backed TheMongolz29c3,407$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.996830.9%21 W · 47 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb555…0c4bbacked TheMongolz21c3,398$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.59038.9%35 W · 55 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89c8…bb9ebacked TheMongolz12c3,019$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3701942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bd3…394cbacked TheMongolz20c3,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6009349.5%46 W · 47 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c4…bb5dbacked Vitality67c2,984$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.584143.9%18 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Vitality65c2,790$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99035236.4%128 W · 224 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae57…45e2backed TheMongolz36c2,750$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick38cpaid-65.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked TheMongolz32c2,740$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.184548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5866…b045backed TheMongolz17c2,623$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.94633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed Vitality66c2,613$1,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.3434156.6%193 W · 148 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc598…b4acbacked TheMongolz15c2,550$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.56237.1%23 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dff…fe35backed TheMongolz17c2,532$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.44633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed TheMongolz20c2,511$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.761,37845.2%623 W · 755 L+17.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed TheMongolz20c2,511$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.5320944%92 W · 117 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed TheMongolz15c2,494$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.242,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked TheMongolz36c2,441$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.7298052.4%514 W · 466 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Vitality65c2,420$1,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.242142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x274f…fbf4backed Vitality72c2,394$1,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.358862.5%55 W · 33 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50c3…34d7backed Vitality76c2,328$1,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.723366.7%22 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked Vitality61c2,257$1,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.4822927.5%63 W · 166 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed TheMongolz35c2,254$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80076546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked TheMongolz36c2,120$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.0628443.7%124 W · 160 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f9…bff5backed TheMongolz32c2,116$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.426046.9%122 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeee4…6d32backed TheMongolz26c2,014$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.851811.1%2 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-48.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xce90…d285backed Vitality79c2,001$1,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.693167.7%21 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+28.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Vitality73c2,000$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54010163.4%64 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed TheMongolz35c2,000$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6901,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc68d…2fe8backed TheMongolz17c2,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3405129.4%15 W · 36 L-8.2wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-45.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x11e5…337ebacked Vitality65c2,000$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70022550.7%114 W · 111 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a5…391cbacked Vitality80c1,970$1,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39410550.5%53 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Vitality66c1,866$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.4453746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed TheMongolz36c1,768$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.0212450%62 W · 62 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked TheMongolz24c1,701$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40075245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x285a…0126backed Vitality73c1,692$1,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.7913857.2%79 W · 59 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2a3…9a3bbacked Vitality72c1,669$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.547342.5%31 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-22.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9777…6b53backed TheMongolz25c1,657$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.0519732.5%64 W · 133 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Vitality65c1,600$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56025555.3%141 W · 114 L+1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed TheMongolz24c1,595$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.7817644.9%79 W · 97 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0e3…dd00backed TheMongolz36c1,552$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.782236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18ea…f93bbacked Vitality66c1,524$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.012560%15 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x246b…f2e0backed Vitality66c1,519$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.791163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked TheMongolz23c1,513$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.7347738.4%183 W · 294 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked TheMongolz15c1,512$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.0360147.4%285 W · 316 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Vitality66c1,510$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.4518347.5%87 W · 96 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50f9…c327backed Vitality76c1,485$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.0117761%108 W · 69 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed TheMongolz17c1,472$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.15,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f3b…0cf9backed Vitality76c1,424$1,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.715959.3%35 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Vitality71c1,416$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.2926360.8%160 W · 103 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xefee…d2b3backed TheMongolz10c1,390$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.962347.8%11 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick62cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2a71…e454backed TheMongolz22c1,340$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.2424944.6%111 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…9a01backed TheMongolz16c1,275$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.6843933.7%148 W · 291 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc70…7f2abacked TheMongolz26c1,272$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.723432.4%11 W · 23 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc599…c871backed TheMongolz16c1,250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.061118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-63.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x910d…cfc0backed TheMongolz12c1,248$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.684045%18 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed TheMongolz11c1,209$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13314532.4%47 W · 98 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c47…7a9fbacked TheMongolz17c1,200$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19814137.6%53 W · 88 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf860…9228backed TheMongolz16c1,190$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.441833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb0…3c1fbacked TheMongolz36c1,184$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4304346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.