TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x11e5…337e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
325
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Movies, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 52 out of 100; worst Valorant at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT22550.7%114 W · 111 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 225 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,919Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,918.62
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$692Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$692.35
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winnerbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$977Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$977.15
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winnerbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$384Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$383.9
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winnerbacked B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$585Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$584.52
Counter-Strike: B8 vs NRG (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Abacked B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$734Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$733.88
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winnerbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$4,714Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,713.95
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winnerbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$891Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$890.76
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid - Map 1 Winnerbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$4,256Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$1,344
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Bbacked NIP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$5,628Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,627.84
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP - Map 2 Winnerbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,320Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,319.99
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Abacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$7,985Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$2,122.5
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 4 Winnerbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$3,120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,120
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 3 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$3,157Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+90%+$2,842.81
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winnerbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$3,060Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$2,939.97
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$6,774Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+87.3%+$5,916.05
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffsbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,400
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winnerbacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$5,649Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+80.5%+$4,545.35
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffsbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$6,210Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$5,289.97
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis - Map 1 Winnerbacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,884Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+120.4%+$2,269.52
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffsbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$814Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$666
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$408Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+100%+$408
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winnerbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$6,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,400
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffsbacked Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$2,450Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,450
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winnerbacked Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,863Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+401.1%+$7,474.16
Showing 25 of 225 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT5642.9%24 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Valorant — the 56 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Map Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+1.5)backed FURIA Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$412Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$411.62
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Team Envy (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alphabacked Team Envy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$435Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$531.85
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Team Envy - Map 2 Winnerbacked Team Envy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$395Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$569.11
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winnerbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$3,480Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,479.99
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex - Map 3 Winnerbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$4,153Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+49.7%+$2,065.09
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winnerbacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$726Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$408.19
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports - Map 1 Winnerbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.22
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG - Map 2 Winnerbacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$6,674Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,673.77
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffsbacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,900Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,900
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG - Map 1 Winnerbacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$4,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,999.99
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffsbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$10,001Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$6,949.5
Valorant: G2 Esports vs BBL Esports - Map 2 Winnerbacked BBL Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$5,999Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,999.48
Valorant: G2 Esports vs BBL Esports - Map 1 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,099Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+90.6%+$1,901.34
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG - Map 2 Winnerbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$2,946Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,945.98
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG - Map 1 Winnerbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$2,195Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,194.99
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs G2 Esports - Map 2 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,550Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,550
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs G2 Esports - Map 1 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$800.09
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffsbacked FURIA Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$880Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$880
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs BBL Esports - Map 1 Winnerbacked FURIA Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,099Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,099.47
Valorant: All Gamers vs G2 Esports - Map 2 Winnerbacked All Gamers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$760Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$759.91
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winnerbacked Nongshim RedForce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,826Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+79.1%+$1,444.51
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gentle Mates - Map 1 Winnerbacked Nongshim RedForce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$716Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+138.4%+$990.72
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$6,080Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+31.6%+$1,920.41
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winnerbacked XLG Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,060Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,060
Valorant: T1 vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+66.7%+$800
Showing 25 of 56 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT4151.2%21 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winnerbacked BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.61
LoL: LYON vs LOUD (BO5) - First Stand Group Bbacked LOUD · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$8,257Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,256.78
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs LOUD (+1.5)backed LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$5,913Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,912.72
LoL: LYON vs LOUD - Game 3 Winnerbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$7,300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+37%+$2,700
LoL: LYON vs LOUD - Game 2 Winnerbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$7,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,200
LoL: LYON vs LOUD - Game 1 Winnerbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$3,600Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$1,400
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs JD Gaming (+2.5)backed Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,760Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$2,240
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales - Game 3 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$10,405Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+44.2%+$4,594.74
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$12,240Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$4,760
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$8,841Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$3,435.69
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group Abacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$6,004Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+47.4%+$2,846.34
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$6,375Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,375.37
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 4 Winnerbacked BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$7,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,799.99
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,890Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,890
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,060Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$940.2
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winnerbacked FURIA Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$5,775Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$4,724.99
LoL: Sentinels vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winnerbacked Sentinels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$791Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$790.99
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winnerbacked FURIA Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$3,286Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+100.1%+$3,290.03
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winnerbacked Sentinels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,880Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$1,879.99
LoL: Cloud9 vs RED Canids - Game 4 Winnerbacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$2,130Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$2,130
LoL: Cloud9 vs RED Canids - Game 3 Winnerbacked RED Canids · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$900Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+233.3%+$2,100
LoL: Cloud9 vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winnerbacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,739Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+72.5%+$1,261.05
LoL: RED Canids vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winnerbacked Sentinels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,859Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+61.4%+$1,141.01
LoL: RED Canids vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winnerbacked Sentinels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,890Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+58.7%+$1,110
LoL: Cloud9 vs FURIA Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$1,100
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$3,599Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$2,401.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$34.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.