TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: RED Canids vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sentinelsof RED Canids, Sentinels
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$220,991

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $220,991 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Sentinels28c21,271$5,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,315.32,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58f8…dc70backed RED Canids77c20,000$15,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,364.6439770.3%279 W · 118 L+30.9wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+9.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked RED Canids37c11,557$4,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,268.8255955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed RED Canids38c8,000$3,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,057.553,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Sentinels46c7,218$3,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,923.1369756.5%394 W · 303 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed Sentinels62c6,991$4,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,626.5839749.1%195 W · 202 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked RED Canids42c6,450$2,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,676.8766437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d4d…fe4abacked RED Canids75c5,520$4,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,140.358359%49 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked RED Canids39c5,004$1,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,953.251,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9560…9467backed RED Canids37c5,000$1,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,87020454.9%112 W · 92 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d75…cf0bbacked RED Canids0c4,500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141766.3%11 W · 165 L-0.5wins0.00per pick7cpaid-46.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed RED Canids46c4,318$1,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,995.761,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61e9…cb1bbacked RED Canids38c4,187$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,580.256149.2%30 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed Sentinels64c4,054$2,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,46050569.9%353 W · 152 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed RED Canids40c3,814$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.751,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c59…3887backed RED Canids35c3,751$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320.3211129.7%33 W · 78 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked RED Canids48c3,611$1,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,733.641,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Sentinels60c3,520$2,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,410.62,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7e2…826cbacked RED Canids34c3,310$1,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.246549.2%32 W · 33 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d05…6f11backed Sentinels63c3,175$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.610044%44 W · 56 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Sentinels60c3,073$1,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,229.3818350.8%93 W · 90 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11e5…337ebacked Sentinels63c3,000$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1104151.2%21 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked RED Canids37c2,994$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.791,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked Sentinels35c2,783$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,804.426149.2%30 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7ea…bbb3backed Sentinels48c2,634$1,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,380.756328.6%18 W · 45 L-11.1wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-48.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x82f9…6910backed Sentinels63c2,500$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9257374%54 W · 19 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x910d…cfc0backed RED Canids65c2,437$1,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,591.1118451.6%95 W · 89 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b75…f8fabacked Sentinels45c2,356$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,290.771963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Sentinels62c2,219$1,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.361,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Sentinels60c2,194$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.811,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Sentinels61c2,015$1,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.7744047.5%209 W · 231 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Sentinels64c1,590$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.112,22237.4%832 W · 1,390 L-30.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Sentinels59c1,586$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.1653640.3%216 W · 320 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked RED Canids7c1,512$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.991,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafda…0fccbacked RED Canids41c1,461$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.5916654.8%91 W · 75 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5656…32fcbacked Sentinels45c1,452$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.939245.7%42 W · 50 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cc5…1135backed Sentinels49c1,200$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61244042%185 W · 255 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x207f…019dbacked RED Canids34c1,166$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick32cpaid+72%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Sentinels61c1,110$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.771,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf06…c9ffbacked RED Canids3c1,100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.563352%329 W · 304 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked RED Canids37c977.95$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.3214228.2%40 W · 102 L-9.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked RED Canids9c926.9$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.952,67235.7%954 W · 1,718 L-153.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed RED Canids48c915.07$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.561,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked RED Canids3c854.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.831,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a2b…c97cbacked RED Canids47c845.1$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked Sentinels57c765.01$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.3995951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67e7…705bbacked Sentinels64c732.53$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.714070%28 W · 12 L+5.4wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x67f7…6876backed RED Canids7c666.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502817.9%5 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Sentinels54c631.26$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.182,90338.5%1,119 W · 1,784 L-117.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4687…8d42backed RED Canids49c610.33$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.23959%23 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Sentinels60c600$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2401,72629.4%507 W · 1,219 L-124.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked RED Canids35c594.79$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21175630%227 W · 529 L-21.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e23…761dbacked Sentinels28c589$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.0820537.6%77 W · 128 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed Sentinels65c583.2$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.1235634.8%124 W · 232 L-19.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5085…9bbcbacked Sentinels55c577.84$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.842347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed RED Canids47c566.46$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.6563161.2%386 W · 245 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb953…5393backed RED Canids38c562.32$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.557151.5%294 W · 277 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x59aa…3376backed Sentinels66c518.52$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.521,13143.1%487 W · 644 L+0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked RED Canids28c510$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.922,30339.4%907 W · 1,396 L-82.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed RED Canids38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19022035.9%79 W · 141 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed Sentinels51c486.11$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.1111032.7%36 W · 74 L-11.1wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc72b…c108backed Sentinels21c476.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.191060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+23.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fbd…c4e4backed RED Canids29c461.89$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.7852538.9%204 W · 321 L+18.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked RED Canids11c456.2$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.133251.5%171 W · 161 L+33.0wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+17.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed RED Canids18c452.04$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0899338.6%383 W · 610 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3333…3c23backed RED Canids40c442.5$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17728042.5%119 W · 161 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd02a…b34bbacked RED Canids67c430.15$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.133259.4%19 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65e0…e51dbacked RED Canids46c425.6$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19543138.1%164 W · 267 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56b4…c4adbacked RED Canids40c400$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15812454%67 W · 57 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+22.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked Sentinels47c400$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21295847.6%456 W · 502 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076b…dbfabacked Sentinels62c395.86$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.0117646.6%82 W · 94 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d83…272cbacked Sentinels56c355.35$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.3559241.9%248 W · 344 L-16.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdb8…e969backed Sentinels57c348.48$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.481,24152.7%654 W · 587 L+5.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Sentinels63c325.79$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.0892342.7%394 W · 529 L-16.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Sentinels60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1201,36837.7%516 W · 852 L-6.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Sentinels46c296.53$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.022,82041.4%1,167 W · 1,653 L-14.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14f4…fa45backed RED Canids35c289.59$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.635952.5%31 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eca…8602backed RED Canids79c253.75$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.621566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+42.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb87…4611backed Sentinels63c236.92$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.6626556.2%149 W · 116 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Sentinels44c234.87$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.061,66059.5%987 W · 673 L+97.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Sentinels56c229.08$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.161,59946.8%748 W · 851 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83af…4084backed RED Canids41c225$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.2528350.5%143 W · 140 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed RED Canids43c209.3$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9044843.8%196 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe46a…f06abacked RED Canids49c203.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006159%36 W · 25 L+7.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+34.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xde2a…6bfebacked Sentinels53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9472234.1%246 W · 476 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b72…1ee8backed RED Canids38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7612133.1%40 W · 81 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked Sentinels51c194.12$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1246552.7%245 W · 220 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1173…1d74backed RED Canids40c172.1$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6833040.3%133 W · 197 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed RED Canids9c170.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7210638.7%41 W · 65 L-10.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-29.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Sentinels38c170.21$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.1121350.2%107 W · 106 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc690…ec5bbacked RED Canids44c163.41$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7241453.4%221 W · 193 L+1.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed RED Canids17c162$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.043,11933.7%1,052 W · 2,067 L-151.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Sentinels57c160.99$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.761,92335.9%690 W · 1,233 L-98.0wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Sentinels80c150.17$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.033554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa649…af7dbacked Sentinels62c149.8$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.458161.7%50 W · 31 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x34f9…12ebbacked RED Canids36c141.28$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8630632%98 W · 208 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81c0…8b96backed Sentinels53c140.93$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.291752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+29.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6fa…ac8fbacked RED Canids14c128.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1863248.3%305 W · 327 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd371…7ea5backed RED Canids39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502556%14 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9176…0468backed Sentinels63c126.98$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9813569.6%94 W · 41 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.