Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: SEN (-1.5) vs RED Canids (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ffcea84b62f2da9dbb02de0673f02078e8b00c8a1fc5b8a091e991cbb9248cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sentinelsof Sentinels, RED Canids
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,643 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224b…8927backed Sentinels | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.99 | 420 | 50.5%212 W · 208 L | +27.9wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a5…419dbacked RED Canids | 53c | 1,320$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…39a0backed Sentinels | 44c | 699.99$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 1,229 | 45.1%554 W · 675 L | +48.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…d9c6backed RED Canids | 53c | 694.23$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.94 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed RED Canids | 56c | 579.03$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.16 | 1,029 | 52.3%538 W · 491 L | +27.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed RED Canids | 56c | 325$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 566 | 50%283 W · 283 L | -14.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Sentinels | 42c | 259.57$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.38 | 329 | 39.8%131 W · 198 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Sentinels | 44c | 196.4$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.32 | 1,224 | 48.3%591 W · 633 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed RED Canids | 53c | 108.04$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 376 | 41.8%157 W · 219 L | -18.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7044…2eb6backed Sentinels | 47c | 108.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 338 | 57.1%193 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked RED Canids | 57c | 106.37$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a0…6f3cbacked RED Canids | 58c | 68.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked RED Canids | 59c | 39.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 214 | 57.5%123 W · 91 L | +13.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbeaa…e2d0backed RED Canids | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 127 | 52.8%67 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Sentinels | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 171 | 32.2%55 W · 116 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b95…b23ebacked RED Canids | 56c | 26.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,024 | 45%461 W · 563 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: SEN (-1.5) vs RED Canids (+1.5)this page
- LoL: RED Canids vs Sentinels (BO3) - Americas Cup PlayoffsSentinels won
- LoL: RED Canids vs Sentinels - Game 1 WinnerSentinels won
- LoL: RED Canids vs Sentinels - Game 2 WinnerSentinels won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.