TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: RED Canids vs Sentinels (BO3) - Americas Cup Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sentinelsof RED Canids, Sentinels
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$470,198

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $470,198 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 252 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked RED Canids34c151,176$51,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,079.9355955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked RED Canids29c49,534$14,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,607.8966437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed Sentinels67c35,467$23,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,861.0439749.1%195 W · 202 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed RED Canids51c28,000$14,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,353.253850%19 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Sentinels66c27,777$18,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,444.1831153.4%166 W · 145 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Sentinels66c23,914$15,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,183.081,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed RED Canids0c22,222$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.222072.9%6 W · 201 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-75.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Sentinels53c15,927$8,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,425.9843442.4%184 W · 250 L+18.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Sentinels54c12,926$7,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,885.643,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked Sentinels67c12,400$8,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,09210446.2%48 W · 56 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed RED Canids0c10,055$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5689810.7%96 W · 802 L+2.6wins0.00per pick10cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x686f…ccb1backed RED Canids41c9,000$3,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,689.992744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-26.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed Sentinels66c7,949$5,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,702.6628827.4%79 W · 209 L-30.6wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Sentinels65c7,500$4,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6256556.9%37 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Sentinels66c7,016$4,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,365.6818350.8%93 W · 90 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked RED Canids35c6,572$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,300.281,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Sentinels65c6,187$4,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,165.3823657.2%135 W · 101 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Sentinels58c6,000$3,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,518.681,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee21…e2febacked Sentinels62c5,594$3,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,106.194949%24 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafda…0fccbacked RED Canids34c5,111$1,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,728.816654.8%91 W · 75 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe64f…7d71backed Sentinels69c5,000$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5501952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cc7…0602backed Sentinels68c4,633$3,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,486.892552%13 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c59…3887backed RED Canids39c4,530$1,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,746.9211129.7%33 W · 78 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Sentinels68c4,500$3,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,42044047.5%209 W · 231 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe749…f660backed Sentinels66c4,413$2,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.42580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+117.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Sentinels59c4,000$2,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,635.991,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Sentinels68c3,907$2,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,263.4632345.8%148 W · 175 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3435…1913backed Sentinels72c3,670$2,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.563759.5%22 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked Sentinels61c3,460$2,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,343.156149.2%30 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe62d…18b4backed RED Canids35c3,336$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.745860.3%35 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Sentinels64c3,321$2,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.452,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Sentinels71c3,291$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.6169756.5%394 W · 303 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Sentinels68c3,226$2,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.7227636.2%100 W · 176 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5656…32fcbacked RED Canids37c3,043$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.49245.7%42 W · 50 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7ea…bbb3backed Sentinels67c3,027$2,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.996328.6%18 W · 45 L-11.1wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-48.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed RED Canids28c3,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84042148.2%203 W · 218 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72a9…5225backed RED Canids30c2,599$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.898739.1%34 W · 53 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Sentinels70c2,383$1,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.0230247%142 W · 160 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed Sentinels65c2,307$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.4511150.5%56 W · 55 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed RED Canids28c2,200$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.981,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa794…1361backed RED Canids36c2,162$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77710624.5%26 W · 80 L+0.5wins0.00per pick24cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed RED Canids36c2,083$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.941,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed Sentinels70c2,051$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.2636034.4%124 W · 236 L-21.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-8.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x40b3…9ef3backed RED Canids35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.132330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-41.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed Sentinels66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68037641.8%157 W · 219 L-18.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcddb…0d22backed Sentinels70c1,979$1,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.769062.2%56 W · 34 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Sentinels70c1,964$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.71,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed Sentinels80c1,851$1,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.4850569.9%353 W · 152 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked RED Canids38c1,817$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.622,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdee3…6fe5backed Sentinels65c1,801$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.3828240.8%115 W · 167 L-16.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3333…3c23backed RED Canids35c1,714$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60028042.5%119 W · 161 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Sentinels63c1,702$1,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.9899338.6%383 W · 610 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed RED Canids36c1,690$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.21,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Sentinels69c1,608$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.721,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Sentinels75c1,475$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.451,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked RED Canids2c1,470$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.225923.2%60 W · 199 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed RED Canids35c1,420$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.881,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x503a…860abacked Sentinels65c1,382$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.5729944.1%132 W · 167 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Sentinels66c1,317$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.7810355.3%57 W · 46 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked RED Canids29c1,034$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8514228.2%40 W · 102 L-9.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde6e…5de3backed RED Canids29c1,030$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.7560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x395f…dcacbacked RED Canids30c1,004$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30026245.8%120 W · 142 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07e4…116abacked RED Canids30c1,003$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004744.7%21 W · 26 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+24.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed RED Canids34c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3403,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed RED Canids35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35012143%52 W · 69 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Sentinels65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35013946%64 W · 75 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd1…cfb4backed RED Canids46c937.15$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4341353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed RED Canids26c931.92$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.911,05823.5%249 W · 809 L-75.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-49.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x95a9…4352backed Sentinels70c911.85$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.564562.2%28 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb275…c76fbacked Sentinels66c910.7$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.6419244.3%85 W · 107 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed Sentinels66c900$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30639447.2%186 W · 208 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Sentinels66c854.88$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.6626354%142 W · 121 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x809c…eca3backed Sentinels69c849$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.172263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Sentinels57c840.73$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.071,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed RED Canids27c756$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.081,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sentinels59c746.53$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.3226940.5%109 W · 160 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Sentinels68c743$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.0943947.6%209 W · 230 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Sentinels53c726.32$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.832,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa1bf…f357backed Sentinels71c720.23$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.2311340.7%46 W · 67 L-12.4wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-27.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x55f9…3de2backed Sentinels71c689$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.81666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+56.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75f2…2348backed Sentinels66c681.82$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.82450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Sentinels71c649.37$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.7219844.9%89 W · 109 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x701f…9b8fbacked Sentinels73c629.28$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.913046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed RED Canids21c625.03$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.322,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked Sentinels71c586.14$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.9825447.6%121 W · 133 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed RED Canids30c581$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.32,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f6d…71b4backed Sentinels66c577.27$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.274751.1%24 W · 23 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+16.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdab8…1bc7backed RED Canids18c576.85$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8314936.9%55 W · 94 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc006…3c94backed Sentinels69c573.91$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.915034%17 W · 33 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-40.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Sentinels66c564.24$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.846746.3%31 W · 36 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed RED Canids36c563.35$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2051,54354.8%845 W · 698 L+75.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked RED Canids2c521.32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.931,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b82…a340backed RED Canids30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503138.7%12 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed RED Canids32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb70c…41d5backed RED Canids29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14517633.5%59 W · 117 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5024…b8bcbacked RED Canids36c496.03$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.5721255.2%117 W · 95 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Sentinels68c483$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.110844.4%48 W · 60 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fc4…0947backed RED Canids29c478$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1b0…b96bbacked RED Canids29c472.99$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.17450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf79…850bbacked RED Canids36c455.56$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.