TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vitalityof Vitality, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$374,734
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$433,082

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $374,734 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 342 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdd54…b245backed Vitality65c34,342$22,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,123.887256.9%41 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Vitality63c32,296$20,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,840.8976058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Natus Vincere35c24,020$8,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,407.0921048.1%101 W · 109 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed66…90dfbacked Natus Vincere2c20,381$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.85728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Natus Vincere35c19,424$6,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,798.5230726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Natus Vincere36c16,503$5,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,941.0883652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93f6…4814backed Natus Vincere36c10,759$3,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,885.546126.2%16 W · 45 L-7.9wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-31%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7193…ae51backed Vitality65c9,700$6,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,426.9829858.4%174 W · 124 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Natus Vincere35c8,388$2,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,935.6941040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed Vitality64c8,158$5,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,936.9172453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cb4…00eabacked Vitality65c7,739$5,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,708.584957.1%28 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed Vitality79c7,500$5,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,574.9912571.2%89 W · 36 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x83d4…37a2backed Vitality65c7,275$4,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,546.156100%6 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere6c6,435$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.972,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f38…477cbacked Natus Vincere39c6,208$2,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,408.192138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-30.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere13c6,044$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.142,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Natus Vincere34c5,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.9723243.5%101 W · 131 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Natus Vincere14c4,900$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6863930.8%12 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Natus Vincere35c4,854$1,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700.7964852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd87…ac38backed Natus Vincere25c4,616$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150.9710047%47 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Vitality65c4,306$2,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,507.2632548.3%157 W · 168 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Vitality62c4,000$2,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5203743.2%16 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Natus Vincere26c3,800$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.7861228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Natus Vincere21c3,691$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.1728738%109 W · 178 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Natus Vincere35c3,600$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26046149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e86…fce6backed Natus Vincere32c3,269$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.552425%6 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-44.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed Natus Vincere21c2,925$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.8720448.5%99 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Vitality76c2,904$2,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.5998052.4%514 W · 466 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Natus Vincere37c2,831$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.3714839.2%58 W · 90 L-15.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-29.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Natus Vincere32c2,626$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.3221655.1%119 W · 97 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Natus Vincere38c2,408$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.0478639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Natus Vincere36c2,404$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865.4435850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Vitality75c2,389$1,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.611,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x255f…cd91backed Natus Vincere15c2,329$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.778947.2%42 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eaf…1a93backed Natus Vincere5c2,321$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.272850%14 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+48.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed Natus Vincere36c2,257$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.5511133.3%37 W · 74 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Natus Vincere9c2,060$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.8649646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Vitality65c2,033$1,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.661,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x11e5…337ebacked Natus Vincere36c1,923$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.3522550.7%114 W · 111 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Vitality73c1,879$1,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.4219949.7%99 W · 100 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed Natus Vincere21c1,819$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.7548437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Natus Vincere32c1,800$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.9832732.4%106 W · 221 L-0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Natus Vincere35c1,770$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.5425842.2%109 W · 149 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere16c1,721$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.194,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe59c…4da7backed Vitality65c1,657$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.8715264.5%98 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f97…eca4backed Natus Vincere36c1,603$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.961233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3351…4e2dbacked Vitality65c1,539$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.754158.5%24 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa56f…ee5fbacked Vitality65c1,506$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.152962.1%18 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x059e…54d1backed Vitality66c1,484$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.645955.9%33 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick59cpaid+5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6c3…1ab9backed Vitality66c1,469$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.61464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc747…de65backed Natus Vincere21c1,452$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked Natus Vincere39c1,419$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.9823249.1%114 W · 118 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Natus Vincere11c1,358$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Natus Vincere34c1,200$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.9851252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3aa…1485backed Natus Vincere19c1,192$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.465848.3%28 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x802b…7d57backed Natus Vincere36c1,147$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.598032.5%26 W · 54 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x34d5…e0c1backed Natus Vincere24c1,118$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.1436555.9%204 W · 161 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8941…3126backed Natus Vincere10c1,075$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3515132.5%49 W · 102 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-25.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Vitality64c1,048$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.6414955%82 W · 67 L+9.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Vitality64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36081244.3%360 W · 452 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Vitality66c996.19$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.7128443.7%124 W · 160 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked Vitality65c992.44$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.3517357.2%99 W · 74 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0e…27c3backed Natus Vincere16c985.21$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.631225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-63.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbde6…b1fabacked Natus Vincere19c979.74$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.6440%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked Vitality65c979$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.6527658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09a0…dc24backed Natus Vincere34c965.31$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.22835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe843…0699backed Natus Vincere28c901.97$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.0610133.7%34 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Vitality67c881.94$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.891,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Natus Vincere27c860.58$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.361,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4e5…d034backed Natus Vincere34c846.66$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.9213044.6%58 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Natus Vincere22c829.28$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.4440950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked Natus Vincere36c816.98$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.8218444%81 W · 103 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Vitality78c783$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.162,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked Natus Vincere15c771.53$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.7329235.6%104 W · 188 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36b9…bdf4backed Natus Vincere38c757.42$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.866036.7%22 W · 38 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ec…7307backed Vitality76c756.44$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.1213267.4%89 W · 43 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5a8…bf60backed Vitality65c753.08$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.5898856.1%554 W · 434 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56de…bc32backed Natus Vincere33c739.06$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.555349.1%26 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Natus Vincere4c736$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.988515.3%13 W · 72 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick21cpaid+15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ce7…81a3backed Natus Vincere36c721.2$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.631050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed Natus Vincere36c721.2$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.632458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+25%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere13c711.47$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4988746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Vitality79c703.73$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.111,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Vitality78c702.74$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.931,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf2a…5ae1backed Natus Vincere35c691.92$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.1712955%71 W · 58 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e2f…791bbacked Natus Vincere5c680.73$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.04911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-75.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Natus Vincere16c678.45$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.375,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Natus Vincere36c667.78$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.435236.4%128 W · 224 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd0…c5aebacked Natus Vincere2c625$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5924.3%4 W · 88 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfaf…9206backed Vitality66c593.7$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.8621246.2%98 W · 114 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7bd…19a9backed Natus Vincere21c571.56$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.03616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-70.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere11c538.03$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.011,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a07…923fbacked Natus Vincere36c534.22$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.328161.7%50 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed Natus Vincere16c533.77$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.454732.2%176 W · 371 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd186…ed6ebacked Vitality64c533.53$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.072445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Vitality80c510.67$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.1312653.2%67 W · 59 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Natus Vincere3c507.58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5869624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7809…64ccbacked Vitality64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1806541.5%27 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+19.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Vitality65c500$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17513049.2%64 W · 66 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x34f9…12ebbacked Natus Vincere31c465.6$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.9126836.6%98 W · 170 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.