TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vitalityof Vitality, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$760,978
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$879,665

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $760,978 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 317 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d58…9a15backed Natus Vincere22c225,503$48,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,974.3214441.7%60 W · 84 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Vitality77c44,672$34,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,274.5419949.7%99 W · 100 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Natus Vincere24c38,178$9,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,199.0721048.1%101 W · 109 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Natus Vincere24c29,574$6,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,998.6230726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Natus Vincere0c27,101$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4232425.3%82 W · 242 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc05…013abacked Vitality75c26,387$19,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,596.864971.4%35 W · 14 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f4d…0d5ebacked Vitality75c22,448$16,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,523.052774.1%20 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+27.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Vitality76c20,949$15,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,027.7276058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Vitality75c20,499$15,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,162.8664852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Natus Vincere22c16,513$3,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,709.097256.9%41 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Natus Vincere4c15,990$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.2381843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x598e…7336backed Vitality75c13,739$10,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,434.671560%9 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Natus Vincere26c12,717$3,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,254.113743.2%16 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Natus Vincere23c12,254$2,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,759.9117643.2%76 W · 100 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x76dc…a9bebacked Vitality75c10,215$7,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,553.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cb4…00eabacked Vitality76c10,172$7,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,441.284957.1%28 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Vitality76c10,000$7,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40075450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83d4…37a2backed Vitality78c9,258$7,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,010.926100%6 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x802b…7d57backed Natus Vincere23c9,171$2,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,097.248032.5%26 W · 54 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Natus Vincere1c8,575$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.196030%18 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Vitality77c7,899$6,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,817.3814954.4%81 W · 68 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Vitality76c7,481$5,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,817.7617062.9%107 W · 63 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Natus Vincere23c6,736$1,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,549.3928738%109 W · 178 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Natus Vincere22c6,513$1,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,432.863930.8%12 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f38…477cbacked Natus Vincere23c6,494$1,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,493.652138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-30.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Natus Vincere24c6,093$1,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,438.7963541.9%266 W · 369 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere5c5,718$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.632,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked Natus Vincere11c5,480$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.912736.2%46 W · 81 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Natus Vincere6c5,411$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.649646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Vitality78c5,337$4,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.991,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f49…463abacked Vitality78c5,316$4,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.5117945.3%81 W · 98 L-0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Natus Vincere23c5,000$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15021424.8%53 W · 161 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a96…4e13backed Vitality76c4,000$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96022358.7%131 W · 92 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Natus Vincere24c4,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.9932548.3%157 W · 168 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Vitality77c3,765$2,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.0698052.4%514 W · 466 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Natus Vincere28c3,628$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.3146149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Natus Vincere24c3,584$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.2878639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked Vitality78c3,508$2,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.7127658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere14c3,234$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.512,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Vitality78c3,181$2,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.623,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Vitality77c3,140$2,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.311,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked Vitality75c3,055$2,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.878963.8%503 W · 286 L-2.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09a0…dc24backed Natus Vincere24c3,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7202835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Natus Vincere25c2,860$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.6364552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Natus Vincere17c2,706$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.9561228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x642c…21a7backed Natus Vincere22c2,562$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.220251%103 W · 99 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde6…b1fabacked Natus Vincere17c2,483$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.4540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Vitality77c2,419$1,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.418354.2%45 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c70…1d71backed Vitality77c2,230$1,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.94965.3%32 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed Natus Vincere26c2,207$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.9348437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bb4…a903backed Vitality76c2,090$1,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.541464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Vitality78c2,013$1,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.882,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Natus Vincere23c2,000$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4551,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x135f…528cbacked Natus Vincere24c1,984$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.258232.9%27 W · 55 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed Vitality77c1,972$1,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.6555845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Natus Vincere27c1,963$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.923243.5%101 W · 131 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0597…22f1backed Vitality75c1,893$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6c3…1ab9backed Vitality78c1,876$1,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.811464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Natus Vincere13c1,673$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.339248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x634a…6de3backed Vitality76c1,608$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.5242651.6%220 W · 206 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7bd…19a9backed Natus Vincere24c1,554$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.9616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-70.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x955c…ce96backed Natus Vincere5c1,539$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.271435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked Vitality78c1,522$1,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.8346165.5%302 W · 159 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Natus Vincere19c1,500$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29032732.4%106 W · 221 L-0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked Natus Vincere5c1,500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7552834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Vitality75c1,478$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.3745058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Natus Vincere27c1,428$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.571,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Natus Vincere4c1,400$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4969624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f97…eca4backed Natus Vincere24c1,392$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.041233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked Natus Vincere24c1,352$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.525344.3%112 W · 141 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79df…31d6backed Natus Vincere8c1,240$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9727831.7%88 W · 190 L-1.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf693…202fbacked Vitality77c1,230$947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.4918067.8%122 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0b1…d772backed Vitality76c1,204$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed52…2dbdbacked Vitality75c1,101$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.1413553.3%72 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Natus Vincere23c1,087$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.117425.7%19 W · 55 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad8f…6b52backed Natus Vincere5c1,068$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.592944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Natus Vincere12c1,055$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.922,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere17c1,015$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.326,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aee…8796backed Vitality78c1,003$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.528254.6%154 W · 128 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Vitality76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.081,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Vitality75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25013357.1%76 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b9…bdf4backed Natus Vincere24c984.74$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.676036.7%22 W · 38 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Vitality70c959.98$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.9851252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Natus Vincere10c923.86$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.4635242.9%151 W · 201 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Natus Vincere17c899.78$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.375,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Vitality76c885.97$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.051,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Vitality75c883.26$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.816058.3%35 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x312f…913cbacked Natus Vincere5c796.3$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.751827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked Vitality75c791.79$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.9517357.2%99 W · 74 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Natus Vincere13c783.65$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.2311740.2%47 W · 70 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2f…791bbacked Natus Vincere14c776.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.71911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-75.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Natus Vincere16c750.18$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.031,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b74…b8abbacked Vitality75c747.14$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.791190.9%10 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick68cpaid+29%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x846c…0366backed Vitality76c702.41$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.9518963.5%120 W · 69 L+0.7wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a1…d6ecbacked Vitality75c670$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.519857.6%114 W · 84 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f14…1e77backed Vitality76c645.59$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.6711166.7%74 W · 37 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa05c…aa9bbacked Vitality76c644.76$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.7121557.2%123 W · 92 L+0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8769…04aebacked Vitality77c639.02$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.974564.4%29 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3234…8b1abacked Natus Vincere17c619.05$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.881643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe02…be9dbacked Vitality76c614.11$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.8931253.5%167 W · 145 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.