TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nongshim RedForceof Nongshim RedForce, NRG
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$429,344

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $429,344 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 404 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc65c…ea39backed Nongshim RedForce53c46,566$24,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,081.4134356.9%195 W · 148 L+23.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed NRG50c36,000$17,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,989.468751.7%45 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nongshim RedForce74c24,425$17,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,469.7319248.4%93 W · 99 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…b386backed NRG28c23,891$6,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,595.441471.4%10 W · 4 L+4.7wins+0.34per pick38cpaid+140%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed NRG56c17,045$9,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,545.4310455.8%58 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x395c…ee8dbacked NRG57c15,048$8,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,577.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1aa…f2b6backed Nongshim RedForce43c15,000$6,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,5501100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Nongshim RedForce44c15,000$6,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,399.9226050%130 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed Nongshim RedForce59c14,416$8,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,844.262951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nongshim RedForce44c13,975$6,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,872.934847.4%165 W · 183 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Nongshim RedForce43c12,137$5,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,917.887236.1%26 W · 46 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Nongshim RedForce45c10,574$4,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,816.5624946.2%115 W · 134 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked NRG11c10,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.992638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aeb…01c2backed NRG47c7,972$3,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,718.681060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked Nongshim RedForce44c7,837$3,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,356.3478162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed NRG59c7,777$4,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,588.43742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Nongshim RedForce60c7,180$4,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,881.4421558.1%125 W · 90 L+15.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Nongshim RedForce46c6,749$3,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,658.312138.8%47 W · 74 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked NRG36c6,672$2,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,401.791233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-38.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd7e8…4f4bbacked NRG48c6,282$2,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,998.438950.6%45 W · 44 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8247…ee42backed NRG47c5,207$2,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,421.942352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid+11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Nongshim RedForce62c5,158$3,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,982.5833759.6%201 W · 136 L+18.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x11e5…337ebacked NRG58c5,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9005642.9%24 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Nongshim RedForce72c4,760$3,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,356.6765559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa2f1…cc40backed NRG57c3,861$2,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,201.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfeb5…7472backed Nongshim RedForce43c3,861$1,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,200.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c8f…d581backed NRG7c3,750$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.746418.8%12 W · 52 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Nongshim RedForce72c3,732$2,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.3168458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed NRG55c3,644$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003060%18 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9716…879dbacked NRG57c3,532$2,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,013.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5af7…d671backed Nongshim RedForce43c3,532$1,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,013.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked NRG58c3,448$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00011458.8%67 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb515…cd6bbacked NRG58c3,264$1,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8939148.4%44 W · 47 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Nongshim RedForce69c3,035$2,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.541,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01fc…5c93backed NRG54c3,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,620366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03d8…e73cbacked NRG55c2,953$1,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,624.153050%15 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Nongshim RedForce45c2,700$1,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,484.971291.7%11 W · 1 L+3.9wins+0.32per pick59cpaid+59.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4762…ba70backed NRG50c2,446$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,222.4513558.5%79 W · 56 L+11.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x697f…b756backed NRG57c2,441$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,388.9713345.9%61 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Nongshim RedForce45c2,400$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,317.839042.6%166 W · 224 L+19.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Nongshim RedForce66c2,243$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.651450%7 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+34.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Nongshim RedForce43c2,237$962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.219644.8%43 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e7c…cbaabacked Nongshim RedForce52c2,181$1,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.413941%16 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Nongshim RedForce54c2,102$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.7393148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e0e…bf45backed NRG58c2,069$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001450%7 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Nongshim RedForce45c2,000$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,11016142.9%69 W · 92 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51c7…71b4backed Nongshim RedForce45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.962100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc452…7234backed NRG55c1,821$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick55cpaid-46.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked NRG55c1,820$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003638.9%14 W · 22 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-27.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Nongshim RedForce73c1,801$1,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.4514652.1%76 W · 70 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb624…de17backed NRG58c1,724$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+29.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Nongshim RedForce47c1,654$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.59850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Nongshim RedForce45c1,601$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.3215850%79 W · 79 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5425…f968backed NRG22c1,516$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3271435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-40.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Nongshim RedForce43c1,500$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85541734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Nongshim RedForce49c1,417$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.75038%19 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked NRG33c1,415$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.828837.5%33 W · 55 L-7.9wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-30.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9a93…ed13backed Nongshim RedForce44c1,364$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.64580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+93.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked NRG32c1,319$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.639042.2%38 W · 52 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed NRG34c1,318$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.924932.7%16 W · 33 L-6.8wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-42.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x96bb…f0fabacked NRG34c1,272$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.42462.5%15 W · 9 L+4.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+39%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed NRG58c1,264$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73310946.8%51 W · 58 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd80c…d40cbacked NRG55c1,261$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked NRG14c1,223$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.2188844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd31…8004backed NRG46c1,220$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.9922047.7%105 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b87…d7aabacked NRG58c1,135$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.58837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked NRG37c1,118$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.5810840.7%44 W · 64 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Nongshim RedForce44c1,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5604637%17 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec15…665fbacked NRG23c989.24$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.724027.5%11 W · 29 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eca…6a15backed Nongshim RedForce46c980$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.2944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed NRG39c951.57$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.9426634.6%92 W · 174 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked NRG12c903.67$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.441,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed NRG33c902$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.524632.6%15 W · 31 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-39.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb2bd…61e4backed NRG57c886.93$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.77850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba58…6d74backed NRG18c842$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15025555.7%142 W · 113 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0188…91babacked Nongshim RedForce46c814.81$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.812944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed NRG59c785$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.125244.2%23 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe132…abf3backed NRG22c781.82$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1729952.5%52 W · 47 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67cc…942fbacked Nongshim RedForce46c751.09$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.092152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc352…a152backed NRG58c743.02$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.954663%29 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d43…ce68backed NRG55c728.59$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006445.3%29 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed NRG57c720.27$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.39728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-57.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked NRG19c709.34$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.61,37647.1%648 W · 728 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked NRG43c700.39$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30086747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed Nongshim RedForce43c700$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3996051.7%31 W · 29 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+10.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked NRG59c681.36$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007640.8%31 W · 45 L-14.7wins-0.19per pick60cpaid-38.6%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xbe92…fb1bbacked NRG55c672.73$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26e3…0b75backed Nongshim RedForce45c672.55$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.7510551.4%54 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed NRG36c661.12$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.4681134.9%283 W · 528 L-60.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Nongshim RedForce43c627.91$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.912347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Nongshim RedForce42c600$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34855152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed NRG48c583.97$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.026725.4%17 W · 50 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-49.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeafb…1897backed NRG59c583$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.9130%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Nongshim RedForce45c560.6$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.3313642.6%58 W · 78 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x191a…b47dbacked NRG2c550$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb096…fd64backed Nongshim RedForce65c538.46$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3b9…4df2backed NRG19c526.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcde5…32b5backed NRG57c526.32$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39bc…2739backed NRG30c501.2$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Nongshim RedForce43c500$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28516639.2%65 W · 101 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.