TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Map Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Evil Geniusesof FURIA Esports, Evil Geniuses
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,360
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$62,386

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,360 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Evil Geniuses51c9,999$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,899.6228955.7%161 W · 128 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Evil Geniuses50c9,959$4,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,979.2512951.2%66 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x70d8…a237backed Evil Geniuses51c3,999$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,959.623650%18 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked FURIA Esports49c3,745$1,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,835.166863.2%43 W · 25 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+34.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Evil Geniuses52c3,486$1,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,673.0815850%79 W · 79 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f73…1b52backed FURIA Esports49c3,446$1,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,688.65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed FURIA Esports49c3,362$1,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,647.331643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc50f…3ad3backed FURIA Esports49c3,006$1,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,472.752045%9 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-28.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Evil Geniuses50c2,500$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,249.8216952.1%88 W · 81 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Evil Geniuses49c2,111$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,076.66747.8%32 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed FURIA Esports52c2,076$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.989844.9%44 W · 54 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed FURIA Esports47c1,500$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70533348.3%161 W · 172 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Evil Geniuses50c1,474$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.413642.6%58 W · 78 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed FURIA Esports50c1,422$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.2212138.8%47 W · 74 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed FURIA Esports50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50026050%130 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed Evil Geniuses51c998.96$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.4911255.4%62 W · 50 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadd4…15c2backed FURIA Esports51c997.69$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.821741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb66…c8dfbacked FURIA Esports49c991.7$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.932055%11 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2655…eaa4backed FURIA Esports52c974.21$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.597930.4%24 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fbf…4605backed FURIA Esports48c931.05$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.683026.7%8 W · 22 L-6.6wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-45.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x6bdd…1b11backed FURIA Esports49c908.53$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.186346%29 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb515…cd6bbacked FURIA Esports51c900.18$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.099148.4%44 W · 47 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11e5…337ebacked FURIA Esports51c807.1$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.625642.9%24 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed FURIA Esports2c728.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.57790%0 W · 79 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked FURIA Esports53c700$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37236648.4%177 W · 189 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed FURIA Esports50c665.17$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.2615843%68 W · 90 L-12.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7786…c005backed FURIA Esports48c662.66$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.083748.6%18 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a7d…cad4backed FURIA Esports52c655.56$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked FURIA Esports52c615.28$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31728747.4%136 W · 151 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5410…dcc7backed FURIA Esports52c608.15$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.5215931.4%50 W · 109 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed FURIA Esports49c584.94$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.632141.7%134 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked FURIA Esports49c577.32$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.896762.7%42 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked FURIA Esports38c550.28$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.53540%14 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x955c…ce96backed Evil Geniuses50c547.05$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.22366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd507…a6ddbacked FURIA Esports49c513.78$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.753537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Evil Geniuses48c496.09$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.2255152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Evil Geniuses59c455.22$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.4568949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6265…c6c1backed FURIA Esports48c400.7$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.341241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cff…3984backed Evil Geniuses49c395.67$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.794949%24 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa4…865cbacked FURIA Esports50c388$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1944654.3%25 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad8f…6b52backed Evil Geniuses50c365.1$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.051163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked FURIA Esports47c357.54$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.0461035.9%219 W · 391 L-17.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed FURIA Esports47c331$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.573966.7%26 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked FURIA Esports52c328.38$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.938038.8%31 W · 49 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe05f…1fe3backed FURIA Esports48c320.67$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.924557.8%26 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked FURIA Esports48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14486747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cc5…1135backed Evil Geniuses50c299.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.87333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed FURIA Esports49c299.72$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.866339.7%25 W · 38 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ed…5dc7backed Evil Geniuses42c286.91$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.411546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x877e…8c95backed FURIA Esports51c285.46$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.599142.9%39 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x312f…913cbacked Evil Geniuses50c275.57$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e6f…3be7backed Evil Geniuses49c271.43$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.432245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed Evil Geniuses49c269.99$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.723847.9%114 W · 124 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec38…ca10backed FURIA Esports48c257.7$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.72669.2%18 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6888…4c79backed FURIA Esports49c256.89$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.881855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8100…2493backed FURIA Esports50c241.67$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.261338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc671…b0c7backed FURIA Esports49c226.65$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.829859.2%58 W · 40 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe60c…d2e2backed FURIA Esports50c213.4$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.72454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf04…ad65backed FURIA Esports50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10028541.1%117 W · 168 L-26.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xba0d…9a6ebacked FURIA Esports48c198.8$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.42560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+25.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d9…c125backed FURIA Esports49c197.84$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.942944.8%13 W · 16 L-4.4wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-25.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb758…dd73backed FURIA Esports50c194$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9725347%119 W · 134 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed FURIA Esports48c193.76$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935448.1%26 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Evil Geniuses50c193.09$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0810225.5%26 W · 76 L-10.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-37.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked FURIA Esports50c183.71$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.0522352.9%118 W · 105 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked FURIA Esports50c165.45$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.45250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed Evil Geniuses54c162.6$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.431266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1479…b75dbacked Evil Geniuses51c159.94$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.37757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb45…0c68backed FURIA Esports49c152.33$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.642347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4523…7adebacked FURIA Esports48c132.06$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.391250%6 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed FURIA Esports48c129.82$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3111454.4%62 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed FURIA Esports52c121.4$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1342840%171 W · 257 L-22.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04a7…164bbacked FURIA Esports51c119.63$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0112650.8%64 W · 62 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7894…7b9dbacked FURIA Esports49c116.33$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573751.4%19 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe54f…977cbacked Evil Geniuses50c116.06$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.86250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3b1…315abacked FURIA Esports52c107.11$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Evil Geniuses50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2fb…e28fbacked FURIA Esports50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Evil Geniuses61c92.44$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7978562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2cca…3c3bbacked FURIA Esports50c90.21$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.11450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Evil Geniuses62c87.8$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5719661.7%121 W · 75 L+20.0wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xeb3d…a77bbacked FURIA Esports45c85.18$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.723943.6%17 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3b5…5b6abacked FURIA Esports50c82.24$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.48742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+47.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbced…5808backed FURIA Esports49c81.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.96066.7%40 W · 20 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+19.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9de9…fa8abacked FURIA Esports44c75.25$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.381136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Evil Geniuses49c75$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.256756.7%38 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa07…4593backed Evil Geniuses60c73.83$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.79250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e6…e722backed Evil Geniuses51c70$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.38757.5%50 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed FURIA Esports51c59.48$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5117555.4%97 W · 78 L+12.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbaa1…71a1backed FURIA Esports49c59.35$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.08666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+61.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked FURIA Esports50c58.2$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.15162.7%32 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7d8…e2e8backed FURIA Esports51c57.09$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.125151%26 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8772…982dbacked FURIA Esports52c56.03$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.141070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked Evil Geniuses49c51.38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.26053.3%32 W · 28 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc64…fc2bbacked FURIA Esports51c49.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2418653.8%100 W · 86 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf21d…2e9abacked FURIA Esports52c49.27$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6226758.8%157 W · 110 L+18.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed FURIA Esports25c47.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1157517.7%102 W · 473 L-71.7wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xe9f8…6ef8backed FURIA Esports52c46.69$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.281540%6 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-27.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x089b…c619backed Evil Geniuses53c45.8$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.511369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+31%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x37a7…868fbacked Evil Geniuses53c45.64$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.