TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FUT Esportsof FUT Esports, PARIVISION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$334,774
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$402,838

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $334,774 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 295 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c0b…7aa5backed PARIVISION45c32,945$14,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,854.7781843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked PARIVISION31c15,975$4,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,982.5635850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c8c…d09dbacked FUT Esports54c14,639$7,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,733.943246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed FUT Esports63c10,000$6,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,699.9937346.4%173 W · 200 L-16.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed FUT Esports55c8,799$4,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,974.9612353.7%66 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb29…e532backed PARIVISION45c8,367$3,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,765.12245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12c0…692bbacked PARIVISION47c8,126$3,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,816.986048.3%29 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed PARIVISION48c7,760$3,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,691.2421842.7%93 W · 125 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb726…0664backed FUT Esports55c7,307$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,307.0512649.2%62 W · 64 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed PARIVISION46c7,000$3,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,229.971,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked FUT Esports52c6,006$3,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,85321251.4%109 W · 103 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked PARIVISION24c5,604$1,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,344.23,25650.3%1,637 W · 1,619 L+97.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x499f…ccafbacked PARIVISION6c5,119$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006048.3%29 W · 31 L+7.0wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+20.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe913…d360backed PARIVISION47c5,086$2,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,389.952035%7 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b07…96febacked PARIVISION4c4,989$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.47464.3%2 W · 44 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-74.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebc7…4003backed FUT Esports51c4,856$2,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,370.652045%9 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked PARIVISION6c4,833$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.7327133.2%90 W · 181 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed FUT Esports50c4,500$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,25019455.2%107 W · 87 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed FUT Esports53c4,065$2,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,891.5721055.7%117 W · 93 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed PARIVISION14c4,000$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.391,27721.9%280 W · 997 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe584…e6e2backed FUT Esports54c3,673$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,672.71666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked PARIVISION47c3,463$1,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,627.475758.3%441 W · 316 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed PARIVISION45c3,163$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.1821051%107 W · 103 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed PARIVISION50c3,086$1,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,542.8946143.4%200 W · 261 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x583f…2dabbacked FUT Esports53c3,085$1,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,449.614928.6%14 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-43%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed FUT Esports53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.9946949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed PARIVISION27c2,829$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.741,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked FUT Esports54c2,596$1,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,201.861,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed PARIVISION20c2,591$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.832,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5e59…1520backed PARIVISION6c2,357$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.016038.3%23 W · 37 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-19.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda9b…b2a9backed FUT Esports52c2,317$1,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.162171.4%15 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+29.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9483…0832backed FUT Esports80c2,253$1,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.1666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35f0…5191backed PARIVISION22c2,251$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012763%17 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d91…df18backed FUT Esports52c2,201$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.89565.3%62 W · 33 L+11.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed PARIVISION46c2,170$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00910335.9%37 W · 66 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x11e5…337ebacked FUT Esports54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92022550.7%114 W · 111 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed FUT Esports55c2,000$1,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.9944648.4%216 W · 230 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed PARIVISION50c1,980$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.5719643.4%85 W · 111 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked PARIVISION48c1,954$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93823952.3%125 W · 114 L+14.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed PARIVISION46c1,850$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.9976546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked PARIVISION26c1,750$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.3361228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed PARIVISION29c1,672$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.066,46642.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L-78.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90c6…17c0backed PARIVISION10c1,601$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick22cpaid-16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed FUT Esports56c1,554$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.2896545.7%441 W · 524 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked PARIVISION28c1,528$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.8247738.4%183 W · 294 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed FUT Esports76c1,503$1,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.694,22049.2%2,078 W · 2,142 L+61.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df9…e49ebacked FUT Esports55c1,489$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.515455.6%30 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed PARIVISION21c1,485$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.791,37845.2%623 W · 755 L+17.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed PARIVISION47c1,460$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6863537.1%13 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd56b…342dbacked FUT Esports63c1,362$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.4711443%49 W · 65 L-12.0wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-24.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked PARIVISION48c1,332$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.3147047.4%223 W · 247 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed FUT Esports55c1,299$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58727950.2%140 W · 139 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed PARIVISION24c1,215$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.2661737.9%234 W · 383 L-22.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x866f…d410backed PARIVISION17c1,200$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2046521.5%14 W · 51 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b73…f6debacked PARIVISION20c1,194$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.221060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked FUT Esports55c1,170$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.525555.3%141 W · 114 L+1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed PARIVISION31c1,159$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.4122554.2%122 W · 103 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cfe…1afcbacked FUT Esports52c1,159$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.081258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4e1abacked PARIVISION48c1,140$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.212038.3%46 W · 74 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a71…e454backed FUT Esports54c1,103$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.2724944.6%111 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc23e…1461backed PARIVISION3c1,100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked PARIVISION4c1,019$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.761,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed PARIVISION35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35014532.4%47 W · 98 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed FUT Esports54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46058651%299 W · 287 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed PARIVISION3c999.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.541850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61ba…66aebacked PARIVISION5c999.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-77%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22ae…af00backed FUT Esports52c999.97$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.9926451.5%136 W · 128 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked PARIVISION44c927.97$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.2281751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc65…19a0backed FUT Esports54c925.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.937739%30 W · 47 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked FUT Esports71c900.31$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.963,21751.3%1,649 W · 1,568 L+89.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked PARIVISION48c890.23$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.0320138.8%78 W · 123 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed FUT Esports56c834.93$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.3711643.1%50 W · 66 L-13.6wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcd5f…8a9bbacked PARIVISION48c825.53$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40013540.7%55 W · 80 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed FUT Esports56c800$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35210538.1%40 W · 65 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked PARIVISION45c797$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.8597952.4%513 W · 466 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed FUT Esports51c788.71$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.7733043.3%143 W · 187 L+1.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c4…bb5dbacked PARIVISION19c762.72$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.94143.9%18 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed FUT Esports55c760.91$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.9153850.6%272 W · 266 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed FUT Esports56c745.73$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.1424346.9%114 W · 129 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5b1…072cbacked PARIVISION20c731.36$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.951346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+49.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4dbd…4476backed PARIVISION36c719.53$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.0615958.5%93 W · 66 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d03…100ebacked FUT Esports54c703.94$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.7241069.3%284 W · 126 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a6f…6b82backed FUT Esports56c700$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.554257.1%24 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed PARIVISION5c694.26$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.491,04645%471 W · 575 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x338c…1b33backed FUT Esports55c683.67$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.6516947.9%81 W · 88 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbff9…009dbacked PARIVISION21c682.57$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1429548.4%46 W · 49 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58be…e6d7backed FUT Esports75c667.5$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.53754.1%20 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked PARIVISION48c652.89$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.877,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed PARIVISION7c638.35$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6865346.9%306 W · 347 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed PARIVISION15c600$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9031444.9%141 W · 173 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked PARIVISION11c599.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6769624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56a8…3639backed FUT Esports53c566$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.022263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77c6…85b9backed FUT Esports56c534.66$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.132744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c5e…269bbacked FUT Esports49c502$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.0242050%210 W · 210 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed FUT Esports54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23078639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed FUT Esports52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24055845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked FUT Esports55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22513242.4%56 W · 76 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed PARIVISION29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1456829.4%20 W · 48 L-8.2wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-26.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked FUT Esports60c491.12$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.5161754.8%338 W · 279 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked PARIVISION26c463.35$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.632,20547.6%1,049 W · 1,156 L-4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.