AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x762d600275bf3e91191f4817a7e73bc3a5a0fde8aca331732495ba70159669c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 16c | 4,017$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.6 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eef…d34ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,757$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.28 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 23c | 2,629$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.85 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 6c | 1,699$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.55 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 12c | 853.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes | 16c | 699.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 7c | 683.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…8b06backed No | 77c | 620.92$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…6694backed No | 66c | 600$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +633.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 483.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57a…7d26backed Yes | 17c | 401.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 13c | 219.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45ab…1009backed No | 71c | 213.9$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8308…9f5bbacked Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 173.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x78e7…0aa9backed Yes | 19c | 134.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1406…43ebbacked No | 80c | 101.34$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…d9c7backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38cf…7148backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 21c | 64.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 21c | 59.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 56.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 79c | 47.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 75c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98fe…bc9ebacked No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 22?this page
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 24?No won
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 26?No won
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 28?Yes won
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.