Middle East · resolved market
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bf7b961691a074e9887886fad15acca0f783af1c0207671a5a5af014d2e3283
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,460,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,766,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,460,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 855 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45a2…3c01backed Yes | 75c | 254,997$191,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191,486.9 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 14c | 94,330$13,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80,739.99 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 19c | 91,060$17,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73,505.28 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb238…d5bdbacked Yes | 0c | 49,998$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f9…bd87backed Yes | 0c | 42,354$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…a018backed Yes | 77c | 38,459$29,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,463.05 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 64c | 37,586$24,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,178.89 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes | 80c | 35,880$28,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,532.88 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17c0…8ee9backed Yes | 59c | 33,902$19,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,844.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +156.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 77c | 31,419$24,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,043.6 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9136…b873backed No | 34c | 25,994$8,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,247.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 23c | 18,249$4,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,122.43 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 73c | 18,170$13,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,213.48 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 75c | 18,084$13,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,503.75 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…6356backed Yes | 72c | 16,826$12,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,115.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…6289backed No | 21c | 16,819$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,318.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2760…ef06backed No | 25c | 15,936$3,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,989.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf784…ab48backed Yes | 6c | 15,270$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.47 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 26c | 12,622$3,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,291.85 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Yes | 76c | 12,000$9,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,119.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…1080backed Yes | 6c | 10,287$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.24 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 50c | 9,553$4,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,815.06 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 79c | 8,639$6,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,808.99 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41c6…76b2backed Yes | 1c | 8,161$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x603c…ac70backed No | 12c | 7,905$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,956.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…728cbacked Yes | 79c | 7,483$5,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,886.34 | 84 | 27.4%23 W · 61 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 75c | 7,196$5,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,411.27 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 0c | 7,096$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 60 | 0%0 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 23c | 6,986$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,407.49 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked No | 17c | 6,796$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,640.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked Yes | 25c | 6,744$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.19 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed Yes | 68c | 6,671$4,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,506.04 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Yes | 56c | 6,337$3,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,520.95 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…ba96backed No | 20c | 6,240$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,989.86 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +178.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd87a…d3b8backed No | 55c | 5,337$2,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +138%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked Yes | 74c | 5,097$3,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,782.19 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…aad3backed Yes | 78c | 5,003$3,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,909.69 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -9.8wins | -0.43per pick | 64cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Yes | 75c | 5,000$3,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,750 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 26c | 4,978$1,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,672.87 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…76acbacked Yes | 76c | 4,767$3,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,623.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b5…eabbbacked Yes | 46c | 4,490$2,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,043.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4d…f703backed Yes | 78c | 4,394$3,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,442.45 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a93…4f54backed No | 24c | 4,338$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,296.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 38cpaid | +206.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5236…ab18backed Yes | 80c | 4,097$3,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,260.35 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 44c | 4,091$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.86 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 25c | 4,086$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.57 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70f…94bfbacked No | 25c | 3,934$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,952.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…d382backed Yes | 60c | 3,480$2,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,101.94 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…f9adbacked Yes | 1c | 3,405$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb54…86bebacked No | 13c | 3,315$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,895.38 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e37…3849backed No | 24c | 3,235$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,458.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 25c | 3,220$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,405.35 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…9830backed Yes | 76c | 3,075$2,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,336.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ac…1e4dbacked No | 20c | 3,036$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,437.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +185.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 48c | 3,011$1,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,564.04 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721f…7740backed No | 19c | 3,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,430 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed Yes | 73c | 2,957$2,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,153.82 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0233…5dd0backed No | 18c | 2,900$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,378 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7a…75e2backed Yes | 39c | 2,825$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…fbf1backed Yes | 71c | 2,814$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…b19bbacked No | 31c | 2,782$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,922.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa806…74cbbacked Yes | 76c | 2,700$2,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed No | 24c | 2,577$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,954.17 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +9.2wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…93b6backed Yes | 70c | 2,570$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,786.83 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 54c | 2,533$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.17 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked Yes | 77c | 2,500$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 70c | 2,400$1,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,687.99 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc740…522fbacked No | 19c | 2,368$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,906.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +413.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c3…f367backed No | 24c | 2,362$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,794.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 20c | 2,342$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.99 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 48c | 2,329$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.04 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa970…eac1backed Yes | 76c | 2,236$1,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb159…ba6bbacked Yes | 78c | 2,206$1,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac7…0757backed No | 23c | 2,174$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,673.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a98…e1e2backed No | 14c | 2,000$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,730 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e22…7fa8backed No | 26c | 2,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…8215backed No | 10c | 1,948$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,748.26 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…e53dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,918$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…2ae8backed No | 14c | 1,897$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,632.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d1…51afbacked No | 56c | 1,890$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked No | 32c | 1,884$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,284.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 62c | 1,690$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.81 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…c9acbacked No | 24c | 1,688$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79f8…44f1backed Yes | 75c | 1,676$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 56c | 1,621$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.14 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Yes | 10c | 1,600$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +242.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9a…86b9backed Yes | 76c | 1,596$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…1401backed Yes | 3c | 1,544$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes | 78c | 1,533$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.11 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 57c | 1,513$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.47 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee30…9297backed Yes | 76c | 1,500$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28c…4e10backed Yes | 66c | 1,495$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x101b…a993backed No | 13c | 1,474$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +672.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed Yes | 74c | 1,469$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 22c | 1,469$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.09 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 20c | 1,459$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.52 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 75c | 1,455$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.63 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…3591backed No | 19c | 1,450$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.54 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…2d13backed Yes | 56c | 1,442$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ef…c498backed No | 74c | 1,413$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran in January 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 1, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 2, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?Yes won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 3, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 4, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 5, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.