TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,876,861
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,237,455

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,876,861 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes1c110,909$1,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,558.37440%0 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb0…f77dbacked Yes2c102,762$1,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,841.173414.7%5 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c3…379abacked Yes2c50,660$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick10cpaid+28.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes1c50,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004214.3%6 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ca7…8195backed Yes1c40,896$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.866013.3%8 W · 52 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes1c37,964$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.0122227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0700…267bbacked Yes2c37,505$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.041553.3%8 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.31per pick23cpaid+105.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes1c36,230$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.8913617.6%24 W · 112 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07dd…2038backed Yes3c28,593$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.08287.1%2 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+200.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes1c26,894$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.7417111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3db…0f98backed Yes1c24,060$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.467150.7%36 W · 35 L+11.2wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+94.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes1c22,552$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.097611.8%9 W · 67 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c21,715$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.297135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x798c…7bcabacked Yes3c19,793$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.42114.3%3 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+266.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9b8…efd8backed Yes5c18,717$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0051346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick27cpaid+27.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x11d5…1b17backed Yes1c17,603$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.75387.9%3 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes2c17,498$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.5438247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes2c16,775$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.05280%0 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes1c16,593$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7414039.3%55 W · 85 L+20.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x0484…e0eebacked Yes1c16,062$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.9110838%41 W · 67 L+11.5wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+62.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x83e0…53e6backed Yes1c15,386$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.098230.5%25 W · 57 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+73.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes1c15,000$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.5867%6 W · 80 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes1c15,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801128.9%10 W · 102 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick14cpaid+149.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8aaa…51dfbacked Yes1c14,720$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.587938%30 W · 49 L+9.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+42.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfb54…86bebacked Yes1c13,786$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.431216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f9…0007backed Yes3c13,731$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4103732.4%12 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes1c13,216$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.1711615.5%18 W · 98 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5935…2e9fbacked Yes1c12,895$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.650%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a11…2efdbacked Yes4c12,451$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+53.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75d…a3cdbacked Yes1c12,269$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.832913.8%4 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+163.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes0c12,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169414.9%14 W · 80 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+86.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5968…bfa2backed Yes1c11,919$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes2c11,560$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.825518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf3ab…daccbacked Yes1c11,506$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003910.3%4 W · 35 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-58.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa331…fae5backed Yes1c11,300$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.160%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8102…d50abacked Yes1c10,500$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.5180%0 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x030e…5652backed Yes2c10,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed Yes1c10,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8015743.9%69 W · 88 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae8a…3a8abacked Yes1c9,626$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0527…20b1backed Yes1c9,533$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.571151.7%2 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-78.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed44…1082backed Yes2c9,429$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.75611.6%1 W · 60 L-0.3wins0.00per pick2cpaid-76.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45a2…3c01backed Yes2c9,273$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.343315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-67.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec8f…94d5backed Yes3c9,210$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e17…7151backed Yes4c8,919$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3204513.3%6 W · 39 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick8cpaid-7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb1a…9290backed Yes5c8,120$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes1c7,918$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.295431.5%17 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+61.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a4a…e049backed Yes1c7,777$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.13450%17 W · 17 L+8.2wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+98.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c7,500$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5964.2%4 W · 92 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes1c7,500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9536227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c7,449$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.494625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes1c6,673$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9218929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7b6…4c5dbacked Yes3c6,621$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+92.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f67…de01backed Yes1c6,539$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.17310%0 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe397…60b6backed Yes1c6,420$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.656137.7%23 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c6,191$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.041,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes2c6,112$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.87684.4%3 W · 65 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-87.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes1c6,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick9cpaid+10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…96cabacked Yes4c6,000$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c5,477$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.81995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa794…1361backed Yes2c5,340$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick2cpaid+328.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x853c…62edbacked Yes2c5,263$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0405…ac66backed Yes2c5,163$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes2c5,011$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010313.6%14 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc948…59b7backed Yes5c4,800$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.690%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c4,482$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea7b…9c4dbacked Yes1c4,404$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353625%9 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+48.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b2f…05efbacked Yes1c4,399$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65258%2 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-65.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bb9…9725backed Yes2c4,292$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.235335.8%19 W · 34 L+7.0wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+28.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3d89…c640backed Yes4c4,160$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4751…e334backed Yes1c4,000$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1287…e491backed Yes5c3,878$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004717%8 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c3,757$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.033103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34b0…7f68backed Yes1c3,713$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.670%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc607…6b29backed Yes4c3,700$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.462615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-60.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes1c3,644$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.541477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e9e…509cbacked Yes2c3,617$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80230%0 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes1c3,595$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.662476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xecc2…f4e2backed Yes1c3,500$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.48128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-78.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes2c3,390$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.54965.2%5 W · 91 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c3,368$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.352282.6%6 W · 222 L+0.6wins0.00per pick2cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cc9…32cebacked Yes3c3,363$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick16cpaid+43.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes1c3,329$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.681442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eba…7a23backed Yes1c3,288$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick23cpaid+24.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes1c3,267$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.442738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x04d4…2634backed Yes1c3,253$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x701a…7c76backed Yes1c3,206$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.543920.5%8 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-33.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c00…9089backed Yes2c3,145$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71cb…2516backed Yes1c3,116$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.62213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-40.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes2c3,113$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.144316.3%7 W · 36 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3690…de80backed Yes2c3,038$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.871612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-41.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1272…f85dbacked Yes2c2,785$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.464334.9%15 W · 28 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+25.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcd4…5b42backed Yes1c2,646$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.084511.1%5 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-84.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ae…364bbacked Yes4c2,533$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc678…e738backed Yes2c2,531$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-63.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb96…46bebacked Yes2c2,485$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4940%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes2c2,467$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50468.7%4 W · 42 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c2,394$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.291703.5%6 W · 164 L+0.6wins0.00per pick3cpaid+16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3b…3149backed Yes1c2,150$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.772814.3%4 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick7cpaid-60.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes2c2,147$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.711693.6%6 W · 163 L-0.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee83…d382backed Yes1c2,140$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21310%0 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.