TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,489,594
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$928,384

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,489,594 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes1c120,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0804214.3%6 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcb0…f77dbacked Yes1c87,480$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.83414.7%5 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes1c55,472$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.7222227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6247…96fcbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-64.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes1c33,058$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.9717111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes1c26,290$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.99402.5%1 W · 39 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick11cpaid-83.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5935…2e9fbacked Yes1c23,922$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11d5…1b17backed Yes1c23,750$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.55387.9%3 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b7c…0b64backed Yes1c22,417$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+52.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes1c20,000$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.13867%6 W · 80 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a11…2efdbacked Yes3c19,513$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+53.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c18,664$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.257135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…96cabacked Yes1c17,950$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.7190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes1c17,663$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.677611.8%9 W · 67 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1a…9290backed Yes3c17,291$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes1c16,558$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.87440%0 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a1c…5d20backed Yes2c15,963$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.115026%13 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-44.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x798c…7bcabacked Yes1c15,046$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.112114.3%3 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+266.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa331…fae5backed Yes1c15,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10560%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb54…86bebacked Yes1c15,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x853c…62edbacked Yes1c14,266$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes1c13,332$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9914039.3%55 W · 85 L+20.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes0c12,525$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.529414.9%14 W · 80 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+86.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes1c11,749$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.18684.4%3 W · 65 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-87.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0594…e07cbacked Yes0c11,520$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.52837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick12cpaid+283.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e99…994ebacked Yes1c11,516$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.81910.5%2 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick4cpaid+43.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes1c10,605$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.345431.5%17 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+61.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x81c0…5d59backed Yes1c10,293$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x030e…5652backed Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c10,000$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2964.2%4 W · 92 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed Yes1c10,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7015743.9%69 W · 88 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes1c9,602$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.6311615.5%18 W · 98 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0527…20b1backed Yes1c8,761$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.671151.7%2 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-78.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e5…e9cbbacked Yes1c7,939$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes1c7,901$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.7436227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed44…1082backed Yes2c7,312$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.04611.6%1 W · 60 L-0.3wins0.00per pick2cpaid-76.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb32…0cc1backed Yes1c7,165$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.31910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-86.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75d…a3cdbacked Yes1c6,849$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.12913.8%4 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+163.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes1c6,700$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.625518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes1c6,500$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.513617.6%24 W · 112 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1287…e491backed Yes3c6,372$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004717%8 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca7f…9012backed Yes1c6,263$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c5,815$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.654625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b2f…05efbacked Yes1c5,778$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65258%2 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-65.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c5,573$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.241,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes1c5,507$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.421995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc948…59b7backed Yes4c5,500$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.5290%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0405…ac66backed Yes2c5,072$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c5,050$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.253103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes0c5,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick9cpaid+10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4f5…9663backed Yes1c5,000$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.61240%0 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes1c4,897$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.184010%4 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-71.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f67…de01backed Yes1c4,850$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.72310%0 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes1c4,581$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.581477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes0c4,513$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.053810.5%4 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3302…79c0backed Yes1c4,510$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1570%0 W · 57 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes1c4,442$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.022476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x34b0…7f68backed Yes1c4,379$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5270%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c4,333$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.142282.6%6 W · 222 L+0.6wins0.00per pick2cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecc2…f4e2backed Yes1c4,314$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.71128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-78.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes1c4,287$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.251442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d89…c640backed Yes4c4,137$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.0440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea7b…9c4dbacked Yes1c4,083$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253625%9 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+48.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3b…3149backed Yes1c3,984$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.652814.3%4 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick7cpaid-60.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc678…e738backed Yes1c3,961$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-63.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes1c3,928$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1965.2%5 W · 91 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e9e…509cbacked Yes2c3,602$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80230%0 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes1c3,553$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0518929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a81…420fbacked Yes1c3,549$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25362.8%1 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-77.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1163…638ebacked Yes1c3,538$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9260%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes3c3,267$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8343212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes2c3,230$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5310313.6%14 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71cb…2516backed Yes1c3,014$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.52213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-40.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ad…80adbacked Yes1c2,859$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c2,835$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.665071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee83…d382backed Yes1c2,776$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.94310%0 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c2,539$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.364195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3b5…b7acbacked Yes2c2,462$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40230%0 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc607…6b29backed Yes1c2,444$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.712615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-60.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3874…9801backed Yes1c2,373$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+51.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c2,344$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.081703.5%6 W · 164 L+0.6wins0.00per pick3cpaid+16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes1c2,280$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.472634.6%9 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick23cpaid+91.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb04…ff46backed Yes1c2,278$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x392a…7700backed Yes1c2,274$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa553…3c98backed Yes3c2,250$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.47944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcd4…5b42backed Yes1c2,120$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.384511.1%5 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-84.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1272…f85dbacked Yes2c2,029$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504334.9%15 W · 28 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+25.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes1c2,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.937610.5%8 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127726%20 W · 57 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e17…7151backed Yes1c1,860$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204513.3%6 W · 39 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick8cpaid-7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb28…b1a2backed Yes1c1,833$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8511730.8%36 W · 81 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0462…b9c3backed Yes3c1,822$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5590%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8812…bfcdbacked Yes1c1,752$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1950%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes1c1,750$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.63717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d4b…07cbbacked Yes2c1,700$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.64825%12 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+187.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x155b…7aafbacked Yes1c1,700$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.39410.6%10 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa804…02ffbacked Yes2c1,671$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a8e…974dbacked Yes1c1,599$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.99515.9%3 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-58.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfed…61b5backed Yes1c1,570$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203125.8%8 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+82.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8102…d50abacked Yes2c1,570$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.92180%0 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.