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Middle East · resolved market

Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,489,119
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,075,886

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,489,119 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes1c200,281$2,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,820.564010%4 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-71.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0594…e07cbacked Yes0c168,334$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.37837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick12cpaid+283.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes0c63,743$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.373810.5%4 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes0c50,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004214.3%6 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes1c40,010$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.885431.5%17 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+61.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes1c30,648$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.8817111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes1c27,482$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.3722227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c23,040$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.2964.2%4 W · 92 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b9…f35dbacked Yes1c20,436$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes1c19,198$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.247611.8%9 W · 67 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes1c15,473$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.31626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick9cpaid+10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c15,385$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.787135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x530c…89f1backed Yes1c15,000$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick3cpaid+133.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9384…45e0backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11d5…1b17backed Yes1c14,973$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.08387.9%3 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes1c14,903$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.13280%0 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes2c14,484$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.5414039.3%55 W · 85 L+20.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x0e99…994ebacked Yes1c14,142$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401910.5%2 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick4cpaid+43.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b7c…0b64backed Yes1c13,894$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+52.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4f5…9663backed Yes2c13,455$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.84240%0 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcb0…f77dbacked Yes1c12,692$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1253414.7%5 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes0c12,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169414.9%14 W · 80 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+86.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes1c9,999$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.76867%6 W · 80 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75d…a3cdbacked Yes1c9,999$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.932913.8%4 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+163.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes1c9,813$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.536227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c9,679$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.561,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…96cabacked Yes2c8,500$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.49190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a49…efbabacked Yes1c7,682$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa709…6c7cbacked Yes1c7,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefd0…bf24backed Yes1c6,781$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-62.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes1c6,504$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.249736.1%35 W · 62 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e9e…509cbacked Yes1c5,727$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80230%0 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c5,698$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.274625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes1c5,503$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7918929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a1c…5d20backed Yes1c5,350$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505026%13 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-44.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0527…20b1backed Yes1c5,022$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.341151.7%2 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-78.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes1c5,006$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.91477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8db…3a7fbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10180%0 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes1c4,906$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.42476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes1c4,493$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.437610.5%8 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes1c4,362$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.51442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes1c4,170$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.725518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes1c3,967$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8711615.5%18 W · 98 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf06…4799backed Yes0c3,919$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104112.2%5 W · 36 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid+71.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes1c3,841$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.691995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xecc2…f4e2backed Yes1c3,700$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.06128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-78.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c3,612$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.774195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3830…a570backed Yes1c3,173$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee83…d382backed Yes1c3,057$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34310%0 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c3,026$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.772282.6%6 W · 222 L+0.6wins0.00per pick2cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d51…6c59backed Yes1c2,900$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40254%1 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick4cpaid+76.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes1c2,820$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.19684.4%3 W · 65 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-87.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3302…79c0backed Yes1c2,800$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28570%0 W · 57 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes1c2,561$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.61440%0 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe900…bb13backed Yes1c2,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-48.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87ff…6632backed Yes1c2,388$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.053925.6%10 W · 29 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8210…aa2cbacked Yes1c2,309$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.111520%3 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x712f…65cfbacked Yes1c2,303$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.621428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+287.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3b…3149backed Yes1c2,192$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.242814.3%4 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick7cpaid-60.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4261…c62fbacked Yes1c2,161$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.29911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+79.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71cb…2516backed Yes1c2,091$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-40.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes1c2,076$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.01965.2%5 W · 91 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes1c2,027$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2413518.5%25 W · 110 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed44…1082backed Yes1c2,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15611.6%1 W · 60 L-0.3wins0.00per pick2cpaid-76.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127726%20 W · 57 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c1,994$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.495071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c1,973$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.311703.5%6 W · 164 L+0.6wins0.00per pick3cpaid+16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd873…2255backed Yes1c1,955$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.315127.5%14 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc56…feddbacked Yes1c1,923$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1580%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73f3…17ddbacked Yes1c1,801$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.66647.8%5 W · 59 L-0.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes1c1,770$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7720%0 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x392a…7700backed Yes1c1,691$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes1c1,690$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.122634.6%9 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick23cpaid+91.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a84…bb2ebacked Yes1c1,644$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162920.7%6 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-53.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d5b…361cbacked Yes1c1,596$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8b96…0df2backed Yes1c1,512$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20300%0 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb04…ff46backed Yes1c1,508$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7df2…01afbacked Yes1c1,500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184610.9%5 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0233…5dd0backed Yes1c1,488$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.96128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes1c1,469$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3444224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b2f…05efbacked Yes1c1,422$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15258%2 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-65.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…63a3backed Yes1c1,349$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102520%5 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7a0…6e95backed Yes1c1,310$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.461136.4%4 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.28per pick9cpaid+143.7%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xc974…f0abbacked Yes1c1,256$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bab…0fe5backed Yes1c1,235$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.585541.8%23 W · 32 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a40…599ebacked Yes1c1,226$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.54323.1%1 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid+47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21aa…d590backed Yes2c1,210$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2b6…f8e2backed Yes2c1,096$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201625%4 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c98…b3a5backed Yes1c1,057$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes1c1,020$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.249250%46 W · 46 L+10.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+63.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes1c1,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-70%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb45…1a6bbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-79.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacd9…cb54backed Yes1c999.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112020%4 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes2c991.19$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.88372.7%1 W · 36 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc678…e738backed Yes1c940.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-63.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5554…b12dbacked Yes1c899.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8393…9fd6backed Yes2c852.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15180%0 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a81…420fbacked Yes1c852.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10362.8%1 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-77.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7a…ba81backed Yes1c738.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ad…80adbacked Yes1c732.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.