TailMyPicks
Market

Middle East · resolved market

Will the US next strike Iran on February 4, 2026 (ET)?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$999,005
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$388,708

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $999,005 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb52…7839backed Yes0c244,253$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c4f…dc1ebacked Yes0c232,512$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes1c31,278$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.99440%0 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11d5…1b17backed Yes2c16,540$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.13387.9%3 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c16,456$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.251,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes0c12,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169414.9%14 W · 80 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+86.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x087d…cdccbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ec…6cf7backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbb4…2803backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa84b…508abacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc68b…1846backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x526d…b069backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x038c…a044backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfff1…af63backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4593…6384backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6340…269bbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes1c10,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7017111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes1c10,000$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.5867%6 W · 80 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6826…f19dbacked Yes1c9,484$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60362.8%1 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick10cpaid-78.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xccaa…705ebacked Yes1c8,046$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100240%0 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…f440backed Yes2c7,500$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9758…536dbacked Yes3c7,203$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.53254%1 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-49.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0527…20b1backed Yes1c6,642$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.951151.7%2 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-78.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0659…2995backed Yes2c6,451$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes2c5,380$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.5411615.5%18 W · 98 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eaa…f662backed Yes1c5,219$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-88.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc921…7dd6backed Yes6c5,183$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-89.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes1c5,166$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.727611.8%9 W · 67 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc714…4141backed Yes0c5,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.26160%0 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed44…1082backed Yes0c4,814$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.66611.6%1 W · 60 L-0.3wins0.00per pick2cpaid-76.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeca…f1adbacked Yes1c4,533$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3450%0 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes1c4,418$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4615523.2%36 W · 119 L+12.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c4,402$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.587135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes1c4,063$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.637726%20 W · 57 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes1c3,747$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3916537%61 W · 104 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21c7…191abacked Yes3c3,500$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.57520%15 W · 60 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes1c3,389$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.152476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes1c3,279$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013518.5%25 W · 110 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes1c3,200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3625518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes1c3,163$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.147513.3%10 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes2c3,139$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.911442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes1c3,103$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.361477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes1c3,089$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.21720%0 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92f4…8f65backed Yes3c2,972$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c2,893$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.094625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c2,872$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.981995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5795…30fabacked Yes1c2,575$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.728719.5%17 W · 70 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73f3…17ddbacked Yes1c2,369$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.95647.8%5 W · 59 L-0.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb28…b1a2backed Yes2c2,252$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9911730.8%36 W · 81 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee83…d382backed Yes2c2,228$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34310%0 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc56…feddbacked Yes3c2,180$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5580%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes2c2,172$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0413617.6%24 W · 112 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes2c2,037$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.69965.2%5 W · 91 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86cc…2c10backed Yes1c2,033$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-54.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88be…3192backed Yes1c2,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14260%0 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c1,750$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.572384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fbe…7ba1backed Yes1c1,716$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19539.4%5 W · 48 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-77.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3739…307fbacked Yes1c1,630$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.25934.3%4 W · 89 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+75.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3b…a86cbacked Yes2c1,512$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27210%0 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes1c1,500$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.56229%18 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d7…9b6ebacked Yes2c1,382$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25170%0 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c1,299$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.224195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19e2…be9bbacked Yes1c1,111$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10200%0 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes2c1,099$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.254136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bd6…5a2abacked Yes3c1,002$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e75…7ee4backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe29e…f2c6backed Yes2c974.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick10cpaid+56.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f5b…c6b4backed Yes4c965.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403928.2%11 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84c7…cabebacked Yes2c919.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.76520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick4cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a40…599ebacked Yes1c872.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.55323.1%1 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid+47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x978a…804fbacked Yes2c793.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9150%0 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c1…e407backed Yes2c736.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15417.3%3 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9c…f2bdbacked Yes2c690.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick16cpaid+125.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9dd…9a89backed Yes4c650.41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25190%0 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce2d…f266backed Yes3c621.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204221.4%9 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b4a…e1babacked Yes2c599.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-83.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8304…7e56backed Yes4c499.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccea…5ca4backed Yes4c465.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-51.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca2c…dff0backed Yes3c460.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd708…7c75backed Yes3c330.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.